Language:English
Hubert Hurkacz v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hubert Hurkacz (Local)
Prediction 57.82%1.73fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.82%57.81%59.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.651.661.6962.89%60.60%60.24%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 42.18%2.37fair odd
EV +0.383%
Edge +0.161%
Kelly +0.278%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.46%42.18%42.19%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.252.252.3846.51%44.47%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hubert Hurkacz (Local): 57.82%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 42.18%. For Frances Tiafoe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.383%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV +0.383%E +0.161%K +0.278%G +0.001% | 2.6% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -0.882%E -0.375%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.882%E -0.375%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -1.30%E -0.557%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -1.30%E -0.557%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -6.33%E -3.91%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -1.30%E -0.557%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.54%EV -8.06%E -5.07%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.46%EV -1.30%E -0.557%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -2.86%E -1.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -2.99%E -1.30%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -2.99%E -1.30%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.99%E -1.30%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-28 10:47 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.99%E -1.30%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-28 10:47 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.33%E -3.91%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.99%E -1.30%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -5.75%E -3.53%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -4.26%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -6.33%E -3.91%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.65%EV -4.26%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -5.17%E -3.15%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -4.68%E -2.07%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.86%E -1.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-28 10:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.86%E -1.70%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.02%E -2.42%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.17%E -3.15%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.17%E -3.15%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.17%E -3.15%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.75%E -3.53%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.33%E -3.91%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.33%E -3.91%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.10%E -2.27%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -6.37%E -2.87%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -6.37%E -2.87%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -6.37%E -2.87%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 10:48 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 10:48 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 10:48 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 10:48 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.59%E -2.78%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.17%E -3.15%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.17%E -3.15%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.17%E -3.15%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-28 10:42 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.33%E -3.91%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.91%E -4.29%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.48%E -4.68%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.48%E -4.68%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.48%E -4.68%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -2.28%E -1.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -8.05%E -3.69%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.28%E -1.35%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -9.32%E -4.33%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -3.44%E -2.06%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -9.32%E -4.33%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-28 10:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.15% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 41.85% | -0.0% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03% | 1.5% | 2026-05-28 10:50 |