L’École des cotes

Fabian Marozsan v Arthur Rinderknech

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-24 11:40 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

51 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Fabian Marozsan (Local)

Prévision 61.49%1.63cote équitable
EV -1.61%
Avantage -1.01%
Kelly -2.68%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
59.43%61.51%61.54%63.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.501.551.561.6066.67%64.48%64.10%62.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arthur Rinderknech (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.51%2.60cote équitable
EV +0.114%
Avantage +0.044%
Kelly +0.071%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.59%38.49%38.46%40.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.442.432.6043.48%41.07%41.15%38.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (51 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.76%E -5.17%K -15.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.114%E +0.044%K +0.071%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 11:24
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -0.656%E -0.254%K -0.415%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-24 11:24
DraftKings1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -6.53%E -4.29%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -1.43%E -0.557%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-24 11:19
Bovada1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.30%E -3.44%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.81%E -0.710%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-24 11:32
BetUS1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.30%E -3.44%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.81%E -0.710%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-24 11:25
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.58%E -1.02%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-24 07:30
LowVig.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.58%E -1.02%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-24 07:29
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.74%E -1.49%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-23 23:49
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.74%E -1.49%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-24 08:15
Caesars1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.76%E -5.17%K -15.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.74%E -1.49%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-24 05:34
GTbets1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.30%E -3.44%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -4.12%E -1.66%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 11:20
NordicBet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -5.28%E -2.14%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-23 23:50
Betsson1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -5.28%E -2.14%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-23 23:50
Bet Right1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-24 10:59
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.30%E -3.44%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-23 23:50
Betr (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.30%E -3.44%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-24 11:09
PointsBet (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.66%E -2.31%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-23 23:50
FanDuel1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -6.05%E -2.48%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 10:29
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.15%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.85%EV -6.05%E -2.48%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 11:19
Unibet (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Virgin Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Unibet (NL)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
LiveScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Unibet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Bally Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
betPARX1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-23 17:40
Betclic (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -6.53%E -4.29%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -6.43%E -2.65%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-24 11:33
1xBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -7.20%E -2.99%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-24 11:25
SportsBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.32%EV -6.53%E -4.29%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -7.20%E -2.99%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-24 10:30
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.61%E -1.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -7.59%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-24 08:44
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.59%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-24 08:39
Fliff1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.91%E -3.86%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.59%E -3.16%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-24 11:23
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.36%E -3.51%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-23 11:59
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.36%E -3.51%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-23 12:00
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.36%E -3.51%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-23 11:59
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.36%E -3.51%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-23 12:00
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -7.76%E -5.17%K -15.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.36%E -3.51%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-24 11:29
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.51%E -4.05%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-24 07:54
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.07%E -2.61%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.51%E -4.05%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-24 08:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-24 07:54
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.45%E -2.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-24 07:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-24 07:55
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.68%E -3.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.44%E -4.97%K -8.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-24 07:54
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (1)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%0.8%2026-02-24 11:34