Language:English
Zachary Svajda v Mattia Bellucci
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zachary Svajda (Local)
Prediction 62.19%1.61fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%62.20%62.03%63.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.501.5768.97%66.12%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mattia Bellucci (Visit)
Prediction 37.81%2.64fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.649%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.25%37.80%37.97%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.542.542.6042.19%39.38%39.29%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Svajda (Local): 62.19%; Mattia Bellucci (Visit): 37.81%. For Mattia Bellucci (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -2.37%E -1.51%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -3.58%E -1.40%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-14 02:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -2.37%E -1.51%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -4.33%E -1.71%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-14 01:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -2.37%E -1.51%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -4.33%E -1.71%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-14 01:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.99%E -1.92%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-14 02:22 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.61%E -2.33%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 02:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.61%E -2.33%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.25%E -3.85%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 02:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.85%E -3.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 23:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.85%E -3.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 13:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.85%E -3.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 02:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.85%E -3.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 23:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.85%E -3.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 23:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.94%EV -4.85%E -3.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.06%EV -5.85%E -2.35%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 02:33 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -4.85%E -3.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -10.38%E -4.38%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-12 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.69%E -0.649%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.58%E -1.40%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 02:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -3.95%E -1.56%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-13 17:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -4.33%E -1.71%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-13 17:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 02:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 02:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.72%E -4.48%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 02:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -7.34%E -4.93%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-13 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.38%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.47%E -2.19%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-13 17:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -8.59%E -5.84%K -18.27%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -3.58%E -1.40%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-14 02:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.83%E -6.78%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -3.58%E -1.40%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-14 02:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26% | 0.9% | 2026-08-14 02:05 |