Language:English
Tommy Paul v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy Paul (Local)
Prediction 78.75%1.27fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -6.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.25%78.67%78.95%81.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.211.2585.47%82.68%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit)
Prediction 21.25%4.71fair odd
EV +8.16%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +2.00%
Growth +0.163%
assuming max odds 5.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.82%21.33%21.05%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.354.335.0926.32%22.97%23.09%19.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy Paul (Local): 78.75%; Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit): 21.25%. For Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.18%EV -7.08%E -6.00%K -39.31%G +0.000% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 18.82%EV +8.16%E +1.60%K +2.00%G +0.163% | 4.4% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -7.08%E -6.00%K -39.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +6.25%E +1.25%K +1.56%G +0.098% | 4.7% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV +2.00%E +0.417%K +0.527%G +0.011% | 3.5% | 2026-08-18 02:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.29%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.71%EV +0.090%E +0.019%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-18 01:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -0.123%E -0.026%K -0.033%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-18 02:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV -1.19%E -0.255%K -0.325%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-17 17:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.32%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.68%EV -1.40%E -0.301%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-17 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.32%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.68%EV -1.40%E -0.301%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-17 21:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -2.25%E -0.489%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -6.29%E -5.28%K -33.10%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -2.25%E -0.489%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 02:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -2.25%E -0.489%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 09:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.00%EV -3.93%E -3.22%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.00%EV -2.46%E -0.536%K -0.685%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV -3.52%E -0.776%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-18 02:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -2.35%E -1.90%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-18 02:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-18 02:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-18 02:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-18 02:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-17 23:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.08%E -6.00%K -39.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 09:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 09:33 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -5.44%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 00:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -5.44%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 02:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -6.50%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-18 01:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.08%E -6.00%K -39.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.50%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-18 02:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.25%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -6.50%E -1.48%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-17 21:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -3.93%E -3.22%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -7.56%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-17 06:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.25%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -7.56%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -3.93%E -3.22%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 02:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-18 02:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -8.62%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-18 02:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.08%E -6.00%K -39.31%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -8.62%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-18 02:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -2.35%E -1.90%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -9.69%E -2.28%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-17 13:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.93%E -3.22%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -9.69%E -2.28%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-17 15:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%EV -7.86%E -6.72%K -46.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -9.69%E -2.28%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-18 02:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.14%E -2.55%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 10:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -3.93%E -3.22%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -12.87%E -3.14%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-17 14:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -4.71%E -3.90%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -12.87%E -3.14%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 13:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -1.56%E -1.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -15.00%E -3.75%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 00:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.93%E -3.22%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.00%E -3.75%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 14:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.93%E -3.22%K -17.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.00%E -3.75%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 14:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -15.00%E -3.75%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 17:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.50%E -4.58%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -15.00%E -3.75%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 17:08 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -1.56%E -1.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -19.25%E -5.07%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 14:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -1.56%E -1.25%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -19.25%E -5.07%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 14:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-08-18 02:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-08-18 02:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-08-18 02:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-08-18 02:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-08-18 02:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61% | 2.0% | 2026-08-18 02:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 02:25 |