Idioma:Español
Taylor Fritz v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Taylor Fritz (Local)
Predicción 77.92%1.28momio equitativo
EV -2.60%
Ventaja -2.08%
Kelly -10.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
75.25%77.96%77.90%79.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.171.221.221.2585.47%82.02%81.97%80.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante)
Predicción 22.08%4.53momio equitativo
EV +3.10%
Ventaja +0.664%
Kelly +0.845%
Crecimiento +0.026%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.67
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.28%22.04%22.10%24.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.234.204.6726.32%23.63%23.81%21.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Taylor Fritz (Local): 77.92%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante): 22.08%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.53. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.67, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.10%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.15%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.85%EV +3.10%E +0.664%K +0.845%G +0.026% | 2.7% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -6.49%E -5.41%K -32.46%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV +2.66%E +0.572%K +0.729%G +0.019% | 4.8% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +1.56%E +0.338%K +0.432%G +0.007% | 3.7% | 2026-08-18 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -8.83%E -7.55%K -51.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV +1.56%E +0.338%K +0.432%G +0.007% | 7.2% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.55%EV -3.38%E -2.72%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.45%EV +0.231%E +0.051%K +0.065%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.92%EV -5.71%E -4.72%K -27.21%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.08%EV +0.010%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-18 04:03 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.38%E -2.72%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -0.652%E -0.145%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-18 08:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.652%E -0.145%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-18 13:02 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.71%E -4.72%K -27.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.652%E -0.145%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-18 14:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.49%E -5.41%K -32.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.652%E -0.145%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.83%E -7.55%K -51.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.652%E -0.145%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.83%E -7.55%K -51.94%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.652%E -0.145%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.86%E -0.650%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-18 13:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.86%E -0.650%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-18 13:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.71%E -4.72%K -27.21%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.86%E -0.650%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.49%E -5.41%K -32.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -2.86%E -0.650%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-18 16:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -8.83%E -7.55%K -51.94%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.86%E -0.650%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-18 14:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -4.41%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 13:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.49%E -5.41%K -32.46%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -4.41%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-18 16:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 13:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 13:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 13:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 15:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-18 08:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.71%E -4.72%K -27.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-18 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.17%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.17%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-17 14:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.17%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-18 15:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.17%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-18 13:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.71%E -4.72%K -27.21%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -6.17%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.80%EV -5.71%E -4.72%K -27.21%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.20%EV -6.39%E -1.51%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-18 05:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 13:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 13:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 13:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 13:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.71%E -4.72%K -27.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.16%E -3.38%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-18 09:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-17 19:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.48%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-17 14:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.38%E -2.72%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.38%E -2.72%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-17 09:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 14:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 14:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.93%E -4.04%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 10:07 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.49%E -5.41%K -32.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.49%E -5.41%K -32.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.69%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-18 15:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.60%E -2.08%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -16.11%E -4.24%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 14:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -2.60%E -2.08%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -16.11%E -4.24%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-17 14:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -3.38%E -2.72%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -16.11%E -4.24%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-18 15:05 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.41% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.59% | 1.1% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.70% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.30% | 1.6% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.00% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 20.00% | 2.5% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |