Idioma:Español
Martin Landaluce v Matteo Arnaldi
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Martin Landaluce (Local)
Predicción 54.49%1.84momio equitativo
EV +0.260%
Ventaja +0.141%
Kelly +0.309%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.84
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.00%54.45%54.69%57.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.731.731.8460.61%57.77%57.64%54.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Matteo Arnaldi (Visitante)
Predicción 45.51%2.20momio equitativo
EV +2.40%
Ventaja +1.07%
Kelly +1.92%
Crecimiento +0.046%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.89%45.55%45.31%48.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.092.102.2551.28%47.94%47.62%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Martin Landaluce (Local): 54.49%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visitante): 45.51%. Para Matteo Arnaldi (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.20. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.40%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -7.91%E -4.68%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV +2.40%E +1.07%K +1.92%G +0.046% | 3.6% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -7.91%E -4.68%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV +2.40%E +1.07%K +1.92%G +0.046% | 3.6% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.20%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.80%EV +1.03%E +0.466%K +0.848%G +0.009% | 2.8% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -8.46%E -5.03%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV +1.03%E +0.466%K +0.848%G +0.009% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.55%E -2.01%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.15%E -1.00%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-15 14:38 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.15%E -1.00%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.15%E -1.00%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 14:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.15%E -1.00%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -10.09%E -6.12%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.15%E -1.00%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -10.09%E -6.12%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.15%E -1.00%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.64%E -2.65%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.52%E -1.66%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 12:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.09%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.91%EV -3.97%E -1.88%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:03 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 20:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 14:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 12:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 08:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 14:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 12:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 14:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.46%E -5.03%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.46%E -5.03%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 14:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 12:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 12:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.00%E -5.39%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.43%E -2.11%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.10%E -2.33%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.34%E -2.57%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-15 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.34%E -2.57%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 14:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.10%E -2.33%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.25%E -3.03%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 21:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.64%E -2.65%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.70%E -3.27%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.19%E -2.98%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.70%E -3.27%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 10:31 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -6.70%E -3.27%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.82%E -3.99%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.70%E -3.27%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.37%E -4.33%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.70%E -3.27%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-15 09:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -0.830%E -0.456%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -8.07%E -3.99%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV +0.260%E +0.141%K +0.309%G +0.001% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 14:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.01%E -1.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.55%E -2.01%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 10:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.73%E -3.31%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 10:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.28%E -3.65%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -8.98%E -4.49%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-15 13:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -0.285%E -0.156%K -0.344%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -9.43%E -4.74%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.25%E -5.77%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.25%E -5.77%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 14:58 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.25%E -5.77%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 0.3% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39% | 1.5% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61% | 2.5% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |