Language:English
Martin Landaluce v Jack Draper
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Martin Landaluce (Local)
Prediction 30.10%3.32fair odd
EV +3.56%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 3.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.33%30.00%30.16%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.203.4434.48%31.59%31.25%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jack Draper (Visit)
Prediction 69.90%1.43fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -5.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%70.00%69.84%71.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.351.351.4075.76%73.86%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Landaluce (Local): 30.10%; Jack Draper (Visit): 69.90%. For Martin Landaluce (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.33%EV +3.56%E +1.03%K +1.46%G +0.052% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.67%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-13 15:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV +1.45%E +0.431%K +0.613%G +0.009% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -6.34%E -4.73%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-13 15:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV +0.851%E +0.254%K +0.362%G +0.003% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -4.24%E -3.10%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-13 14:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.655%E -0.198%K -0.285%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.04%E -5.29%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 14:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV -2.46%E -0.760%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -6.34%E -4.73%K -18.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 15:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.07%EV -3.06%E -0.951%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.93%EV -7.74%E -5.86%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-13 11:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-13 14:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-12 16:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 15:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 15:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 15:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 15:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 11:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 16:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-12 17:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 14:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.17%E -1.64%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-13 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -5.47%E -1.74%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -7.04%E -5.29%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-13 14:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -6.37%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -2.85%E -2.05%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-13 14:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -6.37%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -2.85%E -2.05%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-13 14:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.68%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-13 14:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.68%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-13 14:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.68%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-13 14:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.68%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-13 14:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.68%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.04%E -5.29%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-12 15:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.93%EV -7.88%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.07%EV -4.24%E -3.10%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-13 15:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-13 15:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.94%E -3.63%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-13 14:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-13 14:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.64%E -4.18%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-13 14:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.70%E -4.38%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.15%E -1.53%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-13 14:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 0.9% | 2026-08-13 14:55 |