Idioma:Español
Marco Trungelliti v Daniil Medvedev
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Marco Trungelliti (Local)
Predicción 17.53%5.70momio equitativo
EV +6.08%
Ventaja +1.01%
Kelly +1.20%
Crecimiento +0.073%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.86%17.66%17.29%21.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.405.175.006.0522.73%19.34%20.00%16.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visitante)
Predicción 82.47%1.21momio equitativo
EV -1.04%
Ventaja -0.868%
Kelly -5.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
78.85%82.34%82.71%84.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.121.161.161.2089.29%86.29%86.21%83.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 17.53%; Daniil Medvedev (Visitante): 82.47%. Para Marco Trungelliti (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.70. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.05, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.08%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV +6.08%E +1.01%K +1.20%G +0.073% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +5.21%E +0.868%K +1.04%G +0.054% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +5.21%E +0.868%K +1.04%G +0.054% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 09:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +5.21%E +0.868%K +1.04%G +0.054% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.70%E +0.293%K +0.354%G +0.006% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.824%E +0.143%K +0.173%G +0.001% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 14:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -1.81%E -0.323%K -0.393%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.34%E -3.74%K -27.13%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -1.81%E -0.323%K -0.393%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.34%E -3.74%K -27.13%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.66%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.34%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 14:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 08:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 15:03 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 14:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 14:46 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 14:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.81%E -6.03%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.81%E -6.03%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.56%E -0.647%K -0.791%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.64%E -6.82%K -63.66%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -5.31%E -0.984%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.81%E -6.03%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -7.07%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.34%E -3.74%K -27.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -7.07%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -7.64%E -6.82%K -63.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -7.07%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -7.64%E -6.82%K -63.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.29I 18.90%NM 18.36%EV -7.24%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.64%EV -1.87%E -1.57%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 14:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -7.94%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-16 14:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.94%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 06:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.94%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.94%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 06:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.94%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 06:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -10.57%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 04:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 04:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 04:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 14:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 04:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.34%E -3.74%K -27.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 14:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 14:36 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.33%E -2.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.81%E -6.03%K -52.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -13.20%E -2.67%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.28%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -14.08%E -2.87%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -14.96%E -3.08%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -15.83%E -3.30%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -15.83%E -3.30%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 06:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -15.83%E -3.30%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 06:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -16.71%E -3.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.16%E -4.49%K -34.43%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 13:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -16.71%E -3.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.65%EV -5.99%E -5.25%K -42.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.27%EV -17.24%E -3.65%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.73%EV -1.04%E -0.868%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -17.59%E -3.74%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -4.34%E -3.74%K -27.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -21.09%E -4.69%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -3.52%E -3.00%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -22.85%E -5.19%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -2.69%E -2.28%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 15:04 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Novig◎ | 6.06I 16.50%NM 16.30% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.70% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 15:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.79% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.21% | 1.8% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.43% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.57% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 15:05 |