Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juncheng Shang v Lorenzo Sonego

Início: 2026-08-14 18:00 UTC

Final: Juncheng Shang 0–2 Lorenzo Sonego

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juncheng Shang (Local)

Previsão 58.98%1.70odd justa
EV -0.913%
Vantagem -0.544%
Kelly -1.34%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.68

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
56.58%58.85%59.16%60.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.521.611.601.6865.79%62.02%62.50%59.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lorenzo Sonego (Visitante)

Previsão 41.02%2.44odd justa
EV -0.732%
Vantagem -0.303%
Kelly -0.516%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.28%41.15%40.84%43.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.312.332.4246.51%43.38%42.92%41.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Juncheng Shang (Local): 58.98%; Lorenzo Sonego (Visitante): 41.02%. Para Lorenzo Sonego (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.44. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.42, com valor esperado de -0.732%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -0.913%E -0.544%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -5.24%E -2.27%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-14 16:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -0.913%E -0.544%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -6.89%E -3.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 16:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -0.913%E -0.544%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -6.89%E -3.03%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 16:49
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -0.913%E -0.544%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -8.94%E -4.03%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 13:59
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -2.09%E -1.26%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -7.30%E -3.23%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 10:59
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.37%E -0.997%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-12 21:35
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-14 15:49
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.65%E -2.46%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-14 17:58
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.71%E -3.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 15:48
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.71%E -3.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 16:00
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.71%E -3.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 16:50
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 16:55
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -2.68%E -1.63%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -11.81%E -5.49%K -10.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 16:40
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%EV -3.27%E -2.00%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%EV -0.732%E -0.303%K -0.516%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-14 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -3.27%E -2.00%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-14 10:54
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.27%E -2.00%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 10:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.27%E -2.00%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 15:54
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.27%E -2.00%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 15:50
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.45%E -2.75%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 10:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.45%E -2.75%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 10:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.45%E -2.75%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 12:58
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.45%E -2.75%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.65%E -2.46%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-14 11:00
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.45%E -2.75%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.71%E -3.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 15:55
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.45%E -2.75%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.45%E -2.75%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 10:55
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.04%E -3.13%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-14 10:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.04%E -3.13%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 20:20
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 10:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 10:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 10:59
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:20
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:20
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:19
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.42%E -1.90%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 20:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.65%E -2.46%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:30
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 15:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.63%E -3.52%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.76%E -4.43%K -8.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.22%E -3.91%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 17:45
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.22%E -3.91%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 14:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.22%E -3.91%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.65%E -2.46%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 10:59
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.37%E -0.997%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 17:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.37%E -0.997%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 17:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.37%E -0.997%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.37%E -0.997%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 05:45
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.37%E -0.997%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 17:25
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 17:30
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.71%E -3.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 10:43
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.40%E -4.71%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.71%E -3.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 10:43
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -7.99%E -5.12%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -6.47%E -2.84%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 13:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -10.35%E -6.81%K -19.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -3.60%E -1.53%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-14 06:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-08-14 17:55
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%2.35I 42.55%NM 42.26%0.7%2026-08-14 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-08-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-08-14 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-08-14 17:55
ProphetX◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-08-14 17:55