Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 34.60%2.89fair odd
EV -0.353%
Edge -0.123%
Kelly -0.188%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%34.57%34.78%36.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.752.8839.22%36.75%36.36%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit)
Prediction 65.40%1.53fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -6.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.73%65.43%65.22%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4871.43%69.22%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 34.60%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit): 65.40%. For Frances Tiafoe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -0.353%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.353%E -0.123%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-19 13:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%EV -1.05%E -0.365%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-20 00:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.39%E -0.488%K -0.752%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-20 00:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -1.74%E -0.612%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-19 19:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.18%EV -1.74%E -0.612%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.82%EV -7.79%E -5.52%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-19 07:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -2.08%E -0.736%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-19 21:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -2.08%E -0.736%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-19 21:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.89%EV -3.47%E -1.24%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.11%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -3.81%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.35%EV -7.79%E -5.52%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -4.16%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.52%E -3.09%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-19 15:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-20 01:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.86%E -2.63%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 22:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-20 00:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 07:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 20:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-19 18:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-19 08:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-19 07:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.85%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-19 07:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.52%E -3.09%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-20 01:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-19 07:22 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.17%E -3.57%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 00:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.58%E -2.44%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.44%E -6.03%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 07:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.31%E -3.14%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 07:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.31%E -3.14%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-20 01:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.31%E -3.14%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.48%E -4.53%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-19 23:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-20 01:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-19 07:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-19 20:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-19 07:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-19 20:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-20 01:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.35%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.82%E -4.04%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-19 07:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-19 07:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.21%E -2.17%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-20 01:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.04%E -3.86%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -4.52%E -3.09%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-20 01:01 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -11.77%E -4.62%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -7.13%E -5.02%K -16.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-20 01:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 0.5% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67% | 0.7% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Novig◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.40% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.60% | 1.6% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.10% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.90% | 1.8% | 2026-08-20 01:11 |