Language:English
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Marin Cilic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 53.39%1.87fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.42%53.33%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.781.791.8559.88%56.17%55.71%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marin Cilic (Visit)
Prediction 46.61%2.15fair odd
EV -0.246%
Edge -0.115%
Kelly -0.216%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.58%46.67%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.002.1452.36%49.44%50.00%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 53.39%; Marin Cilic (Visit): 46.61%. For Marin Cilic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.14, with an expected value of -0.246%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.24%E -0.668%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 18:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.30%E -1.26%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.58%E -1.23%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-14 20:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.30%E -1.26%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 10:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.30%E -1.26%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.97%E -5.74%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 05:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -2.84%E -1.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -7.70%E -3.89%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 10:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.37%E -1.86%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 15:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 19:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 12:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 06:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 06:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:32 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 05:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -0.246%E -0.115%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-14 20:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 12:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 20:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 20:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-14 20:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-14 20:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 12:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 20:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -6.04%E -3.43%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -1.18%E -0.556%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-14 19:58 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.04%E -3.43%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.57%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.57%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.84%E -2.89%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 17:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.57%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.84%E -2.89%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.11%E -4.09%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 17:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.11%E -4.09%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 18:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 17:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 10:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 19:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 19:33 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.18%E -4.75%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 09:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.85%E -6.49%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31% | 0.3% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43% | 2.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |