语言:简体中文
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Marin Cilic
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Daniel Merida Aguilar (主队)
预测 53.39%1.87公平赔率
EV -1.24%
优势 -0.668%
Kelly -1.45%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.85
博彩公司预测分布
51.07%53.42%53.33%55.70%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.671.781.791.8559.88%56.17%55.71%54.05%最小值均值中位数最大值
Marin Cilic (客队)
预测 46.61%2.15公平赔率
EV -0.246%
优势 -0.115%
Kelly -0.216%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 2.14
博彩公司预测分布
44.30%46.58%46.67%48.93%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.912.022.002.1452.36%49.44%50.00%46.73%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Daniel Merida Aguilar (主队)：53.39%；Marin Cilic (客队)：46.61%。 对于“Marin Cilic (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.15。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.14，期望值为-0.246%，未产生正期望值。
博彩公司赔率 (60 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 ▼ | 客队 | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.24%E -0.668%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 18:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -2.30%E -1.26%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV -2.58%E -1.23%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-14 20:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.30%E -1.26%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 10:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.30%E -1.26%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.97%E -5.74%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 05:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -2.84%E -1.56%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -7.70%E -3.89%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 10:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.37%E -1.86%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 15:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 19:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 12:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 06:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 06:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:32 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 05:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.44%E -2.48%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -0.246%E -0.115%K -0.216%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-14 20:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 12:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.37%E -2.65%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 20:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.97%E -2.79%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-14 20:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-14 20:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-14 20:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 12:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-14 20:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -9.10%E -4.67%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 13:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -6.04%E -3.43%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -1.18%E -0.556%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-14 19:58 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.04%E -3.43%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.57%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.57%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.84%E -2.89%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 17:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.57%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -5.84%E -2.89%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.11%E -4.09%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.44%E -2.17%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 17:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.11%E -4.09%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 18:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 20:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 17:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 10:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 19:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.64%E -4.42%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 19:33 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.18%E -4.75%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.77%E -3.39%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 09:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -10.85%E -6.49%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -2.11%E -1.01%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (6)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31% | 0.3% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43% | 2.4% | 2026-08-14 20:20 |