Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Adam Walton v Ignacio Buse

Início: 2026-08-16 22:40 UTC

Final: Adam Walton 2–0 Ignacio Buse

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Adam Walton (Local)

Previsão 59.43%1.68odd justa
EV -2.53%
Vantagem -1.54%
Kelly -3.95%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.64

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
58.14%59.49%59.45%61.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.521.581.571.6465.79%63.33%63.69%60.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ignacio Buse (Visitante)

Previsão 40.57%2.47odd justa
EV -1.43%
Vantagem -0.587%
Kelly -0.997%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.93%40.51%40.55%41.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.202.352.352.4345.45%42.60%42.55%41.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Adam Walton (Local): 59.43%; Ignacio Buse (Visitante): 40.57%. Para Ignacio Buse (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.47. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.43, com valor esperado de -1.43%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -2.53%E -1.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-16 22:35
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.65%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.35%EV -2.24%E -0.928%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-16 22:29
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-16 22:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.72%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-16 22:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -3.72%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -6.29%E -2.72%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 22:35
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.72%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 09:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.72%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 22:35
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.72%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 22:34
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -3.72%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -8.32%E -3.68%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 22:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.72%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -1.43%E -0.587%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-16 22:34
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-16 21:59
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-16 22:38
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.07%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 22:10
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.07%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 22:34
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.90%E -3.07%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 22:34
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 22:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 11:54
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 20:29
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 16:50
GTbets🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.54%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.46%EV -5.08%E -2.17%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 22:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 22:39
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 22:35
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.09%E -3.86%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 22:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.09%E -3.86%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 22:29
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.09%E -3.86%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 22:19
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.09%E -3.86%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 11:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.09%E -3.86%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 11:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -6.09%E -3.86%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -10.76%E -4.89%K -8.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 22:36
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 21:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -3.05%E -1.28%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 22:29
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 11:14
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.45%E -1.45%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 11:19
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 11:25
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 11:24
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.46%EV -6.29%E -2.72%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 21:54
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 22:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 22:33
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 22:33
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 22:34
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 21:55
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 21:54
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:49
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:45
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:45
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:50
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:49
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:49
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.28%E -4.67%K -13.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 21:45
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -7.88%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 22:20
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.88%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 11:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.88%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 11:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -8.47%E -5.50%K -15.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 12:49
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -9.06%E -5.92%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -2.64%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 13:42
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -9.06%E -5.92%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 22:11
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -9.06%E -5.92%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 22:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -9.66%E -6.35%K -18.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 21:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-08-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-08-16 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-08-16 22:25
Matchbook◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-08-16 22:25
ProphetX◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.2%2026-08-16 22:25
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-08-16 22:35
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%2.3%2026-08-16 22:35