Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev v Novak Djokovic

2026-10-04 11:00 UTC — ATP China Open

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Prediction 71.77%1.39fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -6.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.50%71.87%71.73%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.301.3680.00%76.39%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Novak Djokovic (Visit)

Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV +1.64%
Edge +0.457%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%28.13%28.27%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.403.403.6032.26%29.42%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alexander Zverev (Local): 71.77%; Novak Djokovic (Visit): 28.23%. For Novak Djokovic (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 20 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.60, producing a positive expected value of +1.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.99%E -4.57%K -19.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +1.64%E +0.457%K +0.632%G +0.010%4.1%2026-10-03 16:20
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.42%E -5.75%K -25.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +1.64%E +0.457%K +0.632%G +0.010%5.3%2026-10-03 18:00
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.42%E -5.75%K -25.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +1.64%E +0.457%K +0.632%G +0.010%5.3%2026-10-03 18:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.42%E -5.75%K -25.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +1.64%E +0.457%K +0.632%G +0.010%5.3%2026-10-03 18:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.42%E -5.75%K -25.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +1.64%E +0.457%K +0.632%G +0.010%5.3%2026-10-03 18:01
GTbets🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%EV -3.83%E -2.86%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 15:41
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:36
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.233%E +0.066%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 15:36
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.18%E -0.337%K -0.472%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-03 18:00
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.35%EV -4.55%E -3.42%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.65%EV -1.74%E -0.501%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-03 19:10
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.93%EV -3.12%E -2.31%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.07%EV -2.31%E -0.667%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-03 18:41
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 18:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.30%EV -5.99%E -4.57%K -19.31%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.70%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 19:10
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.55%E -3.42%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-03 17:56
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 18:55
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 19:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -8.86%E -6.97%K -32.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.55%E -3.42%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 17:45
Fanatics🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 18:50
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 18:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.99%E -4.57%K -19.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-03 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.83%EV -10.29%E -8.23%K -41.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-03 15:36
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -6.26%E -1.89%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 19:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.99%E -4.57%K -19.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 15:10
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.99%E -4.57%K -19.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 18:49
Caesars🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.99%E -4.57%K -19.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 14:57
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.14%E -6.36%K -29.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-03 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -2.40%E -1.76%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -7.96%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-03 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -2.40%E -1.76%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -7.96%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-03 19:25
BetAnything🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.40%E -1.76%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -8.24%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-03 19:35
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.55%E -3.42%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.24%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 18:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.55%E -3.42%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.24%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 17:35
ReBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.24%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.76%EV -9.08%E -2.82%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 18:50
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.27%E -3.99%K -16.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 19:25
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 17:40
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 18:54
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 18:50
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 18:54
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 17:50
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.70%E -5.16%K -22.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.78%EV -8.14%E -6.36%K -29.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-10-03 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-10-03 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-10-03 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-10-03 19:31
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%2.4%2026-10-03 19:30