Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Molcan v Karen Khachanov

2026-10-02 05:00 UTC — ATP China Open

Head to Head

61 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Molcan (Local)

Prediction 22.21%4.50fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.96%22.43%22.10%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.184.254.6026.67%23.92%23.53%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Karen Khachanov (Visit)

Prediction 77.79%1.29fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -7.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.00%77.57%77.90%79.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2685.47%81.89%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alex Molcan (Local): 22.21%; Karen Khachanov (Visit): 77.79%. For Alex Molcan (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.50. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.60, producing a positive expected value of +2.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +2.18%E +0.474%K +0.606%G +0.013%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-01 10:35
DraftKings🎯4.54I 22.03%NM 21.04%EV +0.849%E +0.187%K +0.240%G +0.002%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.96%EV -5.88%E -4.86%K -27.99%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 07:59
Bovada🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.039%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-01 13:14
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.039%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.88%E -4.86%K -27.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 08:15
GTbets🎯4.46I 22.42%NM 21.34%EV -0.928%E -0.208%K -0.268%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.66%EV -5.88%E -4.86%K -27.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 08:55
Pinnacle🎯4.43I 22.57%NM 21.87%EV -1.59%E -0.360%K -0.465%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.13%EV -3.54%E -2.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 10:11
Unibet (NL)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
BetRivers🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
TABtouch🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Unibet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Bally Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
betPARX🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
ATG (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 11:10
Betsson🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.88%E -4.86%K -27.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 08:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.88%E -4.86%K -27.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 11:05
NordicBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.88%E -4.86%K -27.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 08:55
Betclic (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.88%E -4.86%K -27.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 10:38
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.66%E -5.55%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -6.66%E -5.55%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 10:30
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -4.48%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -8.21%E -6.96%K -45.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 09:36
LowVig.ag🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.50%EV -5.15%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.50%EV -3.54%E -2.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-01 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.50%EV -5.15%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.50%EV -3.54%E -2.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-01 13:30
Bet Right🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -5.59%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.32%E -3.51%K -18.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 14:25
Betway🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.59%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-01 08:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.59%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-01 09:50
theScore Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -5.59%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.66%E -5.55%K -33.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 07:55
1xBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -6.70%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -2.77%E -2.21%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-01 14:29
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -6.70%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.32%E -3.51%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 14:24
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.70%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:25
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.70%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:24
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.70%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -6.70%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%EV -6.70%E -1.60%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -8.99%E -7.68%K -52.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-01 14:09
Betr (AU)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -7.81%E -1.88%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-01 08:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.32%E -3.51%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 14:25
ReBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.66%E -5.55%K -33.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-01 08:55
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.77%E -2.21%K -11.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 08:49
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.77%E -2.21%K -11.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 13:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.77%E -2.21%K -11.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.77%E -2.21%K -11.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 13:45
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.54%E -2.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 08:50
TAB🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 09:25
Caesars🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 10:55
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.66%E -5.55%K -33.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -11.15%E -2.79%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -8.21%E -6.96%K -45.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 12:15
SportsBet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.46%EV -11.59%E -2.91%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.54%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 14:25
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -13.37%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -1.99%E -1.58%K -7.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 14:25
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -13.37%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.54%E -2.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-01 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -13.37%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.54%E -2.86%K -14.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-01 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -16.70%E -4.45%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -2.77%E -2.21%K -11.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-01 14:25
betano_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -16.70%E -4.45%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 08:54
Bet Victor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -16.70%E -4.45%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 08:54
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -16.70%E -4.45%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 14:25
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -16.70%E -4.45%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.10%E -4.18%K -23.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%0.3%2026-10-01 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06%1.4%2026-10-01 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06%1.4%2026-10-01 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06%1.4%2026-10-01 14:35
Smarkets◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34%2.6%2026-10-01 14:25