Language:English
Alex Molcan v Karen Khachanov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Molcan (Local)
Prediction 23.01%4.35fair odd
EV -0.155%
Edge -0.036%
Kelly -0.046%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.08%23.12%23.08%25.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.094.104.3427.03%24.43%24.39%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Karen Khachanov (Visit)
Prediction 76.99%1.30fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -8.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.60%76.88%76.92%77.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.231.221.2786.21%81.51%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Molcan (Local): 23.01%; Karen Khachanov (Visit): 76.99%. For Alex Molcan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.34, with an expected value of -0.155%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -0.155%E -0.036%K -0.046%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-01 23:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 11:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.08%E -0.250%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.23%E -0.524%K -0.685%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-02 03:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.23%E -0.524%K -0.685%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 04:01 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.23%E -0.524%K -0.685%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.22I 23.70%NM 23.13%EV -2.92%E -0.691%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.87%EV -2.22%E -1.75%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-02 04:01 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.38%E -0.804%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-01 23:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.38%E -0.804%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 04:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.38%E -0.804%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 04:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.38%E -0.804%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-02 04:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.38%E -0.804%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 04:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.38%E -0.804%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-02 03:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.38%E -0.804%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.61%E -6.34%K -38.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-02 04:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.45%EV -3.84%E -0.918%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.55%EV -6.84%E -5.65%K -32.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-01 20:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 02:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 23:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 23:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 17:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-02 04:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -5.68%E -1.38%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.61%E -6.34%K -38.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 04:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -6.83%E -1.69%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.30%E -4.31%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 03:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -7.06%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -2.99%E -2.37%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-02 03:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV -7.06%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -2.99%E -2.37%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-02 03:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.76%E -3.01%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-02 03:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 23:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 10:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.61%E -6.34%K -38.03%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.61%E -6.34%K -38.03%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.61%E -6.34%K -38.03%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-01 23:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -9.15%E -7.75%K -50.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-01 16:01 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -7.98%E -1.99%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -10.69%E -9.21%K -66.79%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-01 23:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 15:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -10.28%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -11.43%E -2.97%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -3.76%E -3.01%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 03:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -12.58%E -3.31%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.53%E -3.65%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 03:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.22%E -1.75%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-01 20:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.76%E -3.01%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.76%E -3.01%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.76%E -3.01%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 08:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.73%E -3.66%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.07%E -4.97%K -27.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 08:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -2.99%E -2.37%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -14.88%E -4.02%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -2.99%E -2.37%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-01 15:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 0.2% | 2026-10-02 04:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 04:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-10-02 04:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.34% | 2.6% | 2026-10-02 04:55 |