Language:English
Tallon Griekspoor v Matteo Arnaldi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tallon Griekspoor (Local)
Prediction 64.73%1.54fair odd
EV -0.958%
Edge -0.626%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%64.64%64.75%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.471.471.5370.42%68.14%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Arnaldi (Visit)
Prediction 35.27%2.84fair odd
EV +0.156%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.085%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%35.36%35.25%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.672.652.8440.00%37.43%37.74%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tallon Griekspoor (Local): 64.73%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visit): 35.27%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.836. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.840, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.156%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%EV +0.156%E +0.055%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -5.49%E -3.76%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -0.549%E -0.195%K -0.302%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -3.55%E -2.38%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -1.25%E -0.448%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -1.25%E -0.448%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.14%E -4.23%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.25%E -0.448%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 16:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.25%E -0.448%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.55%E -2.38%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -2.31%E -0.835%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-07 16:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -5.49%E -3.76%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -2.31%E -0.835%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.55%E -2.38%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -3.02%E -1.10%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.02%E -1.10%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.02%E -1.10%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.02%E -1.10%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.02%E -1.10%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.02%E -1.10%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -4.08%E -1.50%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.17%EV -4.43%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.14%E -4.23%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.14%E -4.23%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.14%E -4.23%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.14%E -4.23%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.43%E -5.20%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.78%E -1.77%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -5.84%E -2.19%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.64%EV -1.60%E -1.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV -6.19%E -2.33%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:01 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:56 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:56 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 14:56 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.08%E -5.69%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -6.54%E -2.47%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -2.90%E -1.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -7.25%E -2.76%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -7.25%E -2.76%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.60%E -2.90%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.60%E -2.90%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -0.958%E -0.626%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.19%E -2.83%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:21 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.14%E -4.23%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-07 14:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-07 16:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.78%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.31%E -3.20%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-07 16:24 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.60%E -1.06%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.07%E -3.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.90%E -1.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.07%E -3.95%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -0.958%E -0.626%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.83%E -4.73%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 15:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.90%E -1.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.83%E -4.73%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 12:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.90%E -1.93%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.83%E -4.73%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 13:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93% | 0.2% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Novig◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39% | 0.3% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 0.5% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 0.5% | 2026-08-07 16:21 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64% | 1.8% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25% | 2.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |