Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Fire v Nashville SC

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Fire (Local)

Prediction 38.00%2.63fair odd
EV -0.832%
Edge -0.319%
Kelly -0.517%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.43%38.02%37.95%39.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.452.452.6144.44%40.83%40.82%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville SC (Visit)

Prediction 32.52%3.08fair odd
EV -0.827%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.23%32.54%32.46%34.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.872.883.0540.00%34.80%34.72%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -0.814%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.80%29.44%29.58%30.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.143.103.3033.90%31.83%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Fire (Local): 38.00%; Nashville SC (Visit): 32.52%; Draw: 29.49%. For Nashville SC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -0.827%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.08%EV -0.832%E -0.319%K -0.517%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%EV -3.10%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.44%EV -6.23%E -1.96%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 00:15
1xBet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.45%EV -1.59%E -0.615%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.33%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.22%EV -5.34%E -1.66%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 00:19
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.01%EV -1.97%E -0.764%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.15%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 00:00
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.01%EV -1.97%E -0.764%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.15%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 00:01
BetOnline.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.92%EV -3.11%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -4.08%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 00:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.92%EV -3.11%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -4.08%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 00:04
BetUS🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.10%EV -3.49%E -1.37%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -5.70%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 00:20
BetAnything🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.10%EV -3.49%E -1.37%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -5.70%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 00:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.14%EV -4.63%E -1.85%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.59%EV -7.01%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -9.17%E -2.98%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 00:20
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.37%EV -0.827%E -0.271%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.37%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-05 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.37%EV -0.827%E -0.271%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.37%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-05 00:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.37%EV -0.827%E -0.271%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.37%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-05 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.37%EV -0.827%E -0.271%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.37%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-05 00:05
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 22:46
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.70%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 23:45
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.08%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.18%EV -7.70%E -2.46%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 00:04
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -7.33%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -7.11%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 00:05
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 19:30
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.96%E -3.20%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 00:01
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -5.01%E -2.00%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.96%E -3.20%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 00:04
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -4.08%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 00:23
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 12:44
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -5.70%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 08:39
MyBookie.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.51%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.05%EV -7.40%E -2.36%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 14:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 00:04
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 00:05
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 00:04
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 00:05
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 00:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -7.33%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -4.16%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 00:25
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -8.96%E -3.20%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 00:04
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -4.08%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 23:44
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 23:44
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -7.33%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 22:25
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -7.33%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.06%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-05 00:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.91%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.96%E -3.20%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:49
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -7.67%E -3.16%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 00:05
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -7.67%E -3.16%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -2.45%E -0.818%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 00:05
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 23:44
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.45%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -4.08%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -10.06%E -3.30%K -4.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 00:05
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 00:10
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 00:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -2.69%E -0.814%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 00:10
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 00:09
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 00:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -8.81%E -3.67%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 00:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -9.57%E -4.02%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -5.70%E -1.97%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.53%E -3.84%K -5.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 00:04
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -9.57%E -4.02%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-05 00:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.43%EV -9.57%E -4.02%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.68%EV -18.71%E -7.48%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.90%EV -11.53%E -3.84%K -5.77%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-04 23:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -10.71%E -4.56%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.58%E -3.85%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -5.64%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 08:38
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.28%EV -10.71%E -4.56%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.23%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.49%EV -13.01%E -4.41%K -6.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-05 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.28%EV -10.71%E -4.56%K -7.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.23%EV -6.35%E -2.21%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.49%EV -13.01%E -4.41%K -6.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-05 00:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -12.61%E -5.48%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.22%EV -9.93%E -3.59%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.98%EV -9.17%E -2.98%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-05 00:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -14.51%E -6.45%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -13.83%E -5.22%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-04 08:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -14.51%E -6.45%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -12.21%E -4.52%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -11.53%E -3.84%K -5.77%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-04 08:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-04-05 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-04-05 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-04-05 00:15
Matchbook2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-04-05 00:15
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-04-05 00:15
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.32%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-04-05 00:10