Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ukraine v Hungary

2026-10-05 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Resultado del partido

31 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ukraine (Local)

Predicción 42.27%2.37momio equitativo
EV -2.79%
Ventaja -1.21%
Kelly -2.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.88%42.26%42.48%43.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.202.182.3048.78%45.50%45.87%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hungary (Visitante)

Predicción 31.65%3.16momio equitativo
EV -0.310%
Ventaja -0.098%
Kelly -0.144%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.54%31.66%31.46%33.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.972.963.1536.36%33.64%33.78%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.09%3.83momio equitativo
EV +5.39%
Ventaja +1.33%
Kelly +1.77%
Crecimiento +0.095%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.04

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.97%26.08%26.06%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.353.503.454.0429.85%28.58%28.99%24.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Ukraine (Local): 42.27%; Hungary (Visitante): 31.65%; Empate: 26.09%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.83. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.04, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +5.39%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.42%EV -5.75%E -2.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.61%EV -6.01%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.97%EV +5.39%E +1.33%K +1.77%G +0.095%3.3%2026-10-02 11:56
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.40%EV -6.59%E -2.98%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.62%EV -6.96%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.98%EV +4.34%E +1.09%K +1.45%G +0.063%4.3%2026-10-02 11:55
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -2.79%E -1.21%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -8.22%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-02 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -2.79%E -1.21%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -9.17%E -3.20%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-02 12:20
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -2.79%E -1.21%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.80%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 12:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -2.79%E -1.21%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.80%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 12:20
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.90%E -2.18%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -8.85%E -3.07%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-02 11:55
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -4.90%E -2.18%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-02 11:55
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.01%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 10:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.01%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 10:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.01%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 10:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.01%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 10:30
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.72%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.04%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -7.40%E -2.08%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 07:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.01%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.70%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-02 07:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.86%EV -10.39%E -4.90%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -6.64%E -2.25%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-02 07:38
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -11.24%E -5.35%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -9.80%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-02 07:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.42%EV -8.70%E -4.03%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 30.95%EV -6.32%E -2.14%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.63%EV -10.26%E -2.98%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 07:39
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.01%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-02 10:20
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -7.01%E -3.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -8.85%E -3.07%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 10:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -13.35%E -6.51%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -11.31%E -3.33%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-02 07:40
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -7.86%E -3.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -0.310%E -0.098%K -0.144%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.61%E -3.76%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 07:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 26.34%1.50I 66.67%NM 31.96%1.15I 86.96%NM 41.69%108.6%2026-10-02 13:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 26.34%1.50I 66.67%NM 31.96%1.15I 86.96%NM 41.69%108.6%2026-10-02 13:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 26.34%1.50I 66.67%NM 31.96%1.15I 86.96%NM 41.69%108.6%2026-10-02 13:05
Arbitraje (44 combinaciones) +0.02%Coral 2.30 (43.5%) / Unibet 3.15 (31.8%) / 1xBet 4.04 (24.8%)Ver las 44 combinaciones
Ukraine (Local)Hungary (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Casumo🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)BetRivers🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Virgin Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LiveScore Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)TABtouch🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Coral🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Bally Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Casumo🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)BetRivers🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Virgin Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LiveScore Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)TABtouch🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Bally Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Casumo🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)BetRivers🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Virgin Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LiveScore Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)TABtouch🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Neds🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Bally Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Casumo🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)BetRivers🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Virgin Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LiveScore Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)TABtouch🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 2.30 (43.5%)Bally Bet🎯 3.15 (31.8%)1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)+0.023%