The School of Odds
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Spain v Czech Republic

2026-10-03 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spain (Local)

Prediction 78.83%1.27fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -5.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.29%78.57%78.84%80.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.181.181.2588.50%85.04%84.75%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Czech Republic (Visit)

Prediction 7.06%14.16fair odd
EV +18.33%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.213%

assuming max odds 16.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.72%7.12%7.15%8.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.4013.0016.7510.00%7.46%7.69%5.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.11%7.09fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.179%
Kelly -0.209%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.04%14.32%14.01%16.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.856.596.757.0017.09%15.18%14.81%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Spain (Local): 78.83%; Czech Republic (Visit): 7.06%; Draw: 14.11%. For Czech Republic (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.16. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 16.75, producing a positive expected value of +18.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.90%EV -3.04%E -2.47%K -13.22%G +0.000%16.75I 5.97%NM 5.72%EV +18.33%E +1.09%K +1.16%G +0.213%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.38%EV -17.48%E -2.99%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-29 11:17
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.71%EV -1.46%E -1.17%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.89%EV +16.56%E +1.00%K +1.07%G +0.177%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.41%EV -16.49%E -2.79%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-29 11:25
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.18%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +5.97%E +0.398%K +0.426%G +0.025%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -1.25%E -0.179%K -0.209%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-29 09:30
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 10:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 10:00
BetRivers🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 09:59
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 10:00
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 10:00
Bally Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 09:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -6.98%E -5.92%K -38.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -4.78%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-29 10:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.71%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -1.10%E -0.078%K -0.084%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -1.25%E -0.179%K -0.209%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-29 12:25
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -5.41%E -4.50%K -27.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -8.16%E -0.628%K -0.680%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -8.31%E -1.28%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 10:20
LeoVegas🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.71%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -8.16%E -0.628%K -0.680%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -1.25%E -0.179%K -0.209%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 09:00
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.71%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -8.16%E -0.628%K -0.680%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -1.25%E -0.179%K -0.209%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-29 12:50
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.41%E -4.50%K -27.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -8.16%E -0.628%K -0.680%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -15.36%E -2.56%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-29 11:19
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.41%E -4.50%K -27.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -8.16%E -0.628%K -0.680%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -15.36%E -2.56%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-29 11:45
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -8.56%E -7.38%K -53.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -8.16%E -0.628%K -0.680%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -1.25%E -0.179%K -0.209%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-29 12:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.80%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.71%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.23%EV -9.93%E -0.779%K -0.845%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.97%EV -6.90%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-29 09:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.92%EV -9.35%E -8.13%K -62.31%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.12%EV -9.93%E -0.779%K -0.845%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.96%EV -8.31%E -1.28%K -1.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-29 09:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.49%EV -8.56%E -7.38%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -11.69%E -0.935%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -9.72%E -1.52%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-29 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.49%EV -8.56%E -7.38%K -53.49%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.28%EV -11.69%E -0.935%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -9.72%E -1.52%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-29 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.52%EV -10.14%E -8.89%K -72.39%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.16%EV -11.69%E -0.935%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -11.83%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-29 10:00
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -9.35%E -8.13%K -62.31%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -15.23%E -1.27%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -1.25%E -0.179%K -0.209%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-29 12:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.88%EV -10.14%E -8.89%K -72.39%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.46%EV -25.82%E -2.46%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -8.31%E -1.28%K -1.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-29 09:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.29%EV -10.92%E -9.67%K -84.03%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.73%EV -29.35%E -2.94%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.97%EV -11.83%E -1.89%K -2.25%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-29 09:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 74.73%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.64%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.64%16.4%2026-09-29 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 74.73%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.64%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.64%16.4%2026-09-29 12:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 74.73%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.64%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.64%16.4%2026-09-29 12:45