Language:English
Slovenia v Scotland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Slovenia (Local)
Prediction 33.49%2.99fair odd
EV +0.463%
Edge +0.154%
Kelly +0.231%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.63%33.55%33.44%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.772.753.0037.74%36.07%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Scotland (Visit)
Prediction 35.28%2.83fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.562%
Kelly +0.860%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 2.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.52%35.16%35.33%36.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.702.8840.00%37.19%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.23%3.20fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.47%31.29%31.23%32.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.953.003.1035.71%33.85%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Slovenia (Local): 33.49%; Scotland (Visit): 35.28%; Draw: 31.23%. For Scotland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.20%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.84%EV +1.62%E +0.562%K +0.860%G +0.014% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.96%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.20%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.84%EV +1.62%E +0.562%K +0.860%G +0.014% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.96%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.79%EV -4.90%E -1.72%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.64%EV -2.26%E -0.817%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.57%EV -5.07%E -1.67%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-26 12:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -9.44%E -3.25%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -9.44%E -3.25%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.60%EV -5.56%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.71%EV -3.68%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.69%EV -6.63%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.56%EV -4.03%E -1.48%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.88%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 12:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -3.19%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-26 12:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 12:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 12:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.34%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -11.00%E -3.86%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 12:58 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -7.88%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 12:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -12.56%E -4.49%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -12.56%E -4.49%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -4.73%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -12.56%E -4.49%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -2.89%E -0.995%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.56%E -1.60%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-26 12:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV +0.463%E +0.154%K +0.231%G +0.001% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.21%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -7.88%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-26 12:56 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -12.56%E -4.49%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-26 12:58 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-26 12:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -6.23%E -2.23%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -12.56%E -4.49%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -7.91%E -2.88%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -10.03%E -3.93%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -6.31%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.63%EV -11.26%E -4.25%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.79%E -4.72%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.44%E -3.25%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.43% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.51% | 0.8% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.95% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.95% | 1.1% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.95% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.95% | 1.1% | 2026-09-26 13:00 |