The School of Odds
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Slovakia v Moldova

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:45 UTC

Final: Slovakia 2–0 Moldova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Slovakia (Local)

Prediction 81.81%1.22fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -19.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.74%81.43%81.91%83.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.151.151.1890.91%86.88%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moldova (Visit)

Prediction 5.43%18.40fair odd
EV +3.25%
Edge +0.171%
Kelly +0.180%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.99%5.62%5.43%7.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0016.0916.0019.007.69%6.22%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.76%7.84fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.260%
Kelly +0.297%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.65%12.94%12.66%15.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.127.008.0016.67%14.05%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Slovakia (Local): 81.81%; Moldova (Visit): 5.43%; Draw: 12.76%. For Moldova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.81%EV -5.92%E -5.15%K -39.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +2.08%E +0.260%K +0.297%G +0.006%5.0%2026-09-26 18:25
Casumo🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.81%EV -5.92%E -5.15%K -39.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +2.08%E +0.260%K +0.297%G +0.006%5.0%2026-09-26 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.81%EV -5.92%E -5.15%K -39.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +2.08%E +0.260%K +0.297%G +0.006%5.0%2026-09-26 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.81%EV -5.92%E -5.15%K -39.49%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV +2.08%E +0.260%K +0.297%G +0.006%5.0%2026-09-26 18:30
FanDuel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -8.38%E -7.48%K -69.81%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +2.08%E +0.260%K +0.297%G +0.006%7.3%2026-09-26 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.04%EV -4.29%E -3.66%K -25.22%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.33%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.63%EV -3.03%E -0.398%K -0.459%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 18:42
Suprabets🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.52%EV -5.92%E -5.15%K -39.49%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.99%EV +3.25%E +0.171%K +0.180%G +0.006%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.49%EV -3.03%E -0.398%K -0.459%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 18:22
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.74%E -5.91%K -48.15%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -7.62%E -0.448%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -4.30%E -0.574%K -0.662%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-26 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.08%EV -8.38%E -7.48%K -69.81%G +0.000%16.25I 6.15%NM 5.66%EV -11.70%E -0.720%K -0.767%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -4.30%E -0.574%K -0.662%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-26 18:43
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -6.74%E -5.91%K -48.15%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -29.36%E -2.26%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.63%EV -7.49%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-26 18:25
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.38%EV -3.47%E -2.94%K -19.27%G +0.000%15.20I 6.58%NM 6.24%EV -17.40%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.09I 14.10%NM 13.38%EV -9.53%E -1.34%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 18:42
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.39%EV -4.29%E -3.66%K -25.22%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.01%EV +3.25%E +0.171%K +0.180%G +0.006%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 18:44
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.18%EV -3.47%E -2.94%K -19.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -18.49%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-26 18:16
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.18%EV -3.47%E -2.94%K -19.27%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -18.49%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-26 18:15
LeoVegas🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -5.92%E -5.15%K -39.49%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -18.49%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 18:25
DraftKings🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -6.74%E -5.91%K -48.15%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -18.49%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 18:44
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -5.92%E -5.15%K -39.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -29.36%E -2.26%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.30%EV -8.38%E -7.48%K -69.81%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%EV -13.05%E -0.816%K -0.870%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.01%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-26 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.30%EV -8.38%E -7.48%K -69.81%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%EV -13.05%E -0.816%K -0.870%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.01%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-26 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -10.01%E -9.10%K -100.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -18.49%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-26 18:30
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -10.01%E -9.10%K -100.13%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -23.92%E -1.71%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -10.68%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-26 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.50%EV -3.47%E -2.94%K -19.27%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -23.92%E -1.71%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.80%EV -13.23%E -1.95%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-26 18:15
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.50%EV -3.47%E -2.94%K -19.27%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -23.92%E -1.71%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.80%EV -13.23%E -1.95%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-26 18:15
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -4.29%E -3.66%K -25.22%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -18.49%E -1.23%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -17.06%E -2.62%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-26 18:25
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -4.29%E -3.66%K -25.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -29.36%E -2.26%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -17.06%E -2.62%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 18:40
Betsson🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.71%EV -5.10%E -4.40%K -31.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -22.17%E -3.63%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-26 18:43
NordicBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.71%EV -5.10%E -4.40%K -31.90%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -2.19%E -0.121%K -0.129%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.16%EV -22.17%E -3.63%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-26 18:43
TAB🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.98%EV -3.47%E -2.94%K -19.27%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV -7.62%E -0.448%K -0.476%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -23.44%E -3.91%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.68%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.31%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%0.9%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.68%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.31%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%0.9%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.68%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.31%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%0.9%2026-09-26 18:40