Language:English
Serbia v Netherlands
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Serbia (Local)
Prediction 13.89%7.20fair odd
EV +4.88%
Edge +0.646%
Kelly +0.744%
Growth +0.036%
assuming max odds 7.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.72%13.87%13.83%15.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.686.507.5516.67%14.97%15.38%13.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Netherlands (Visit)
Prediction 67.02%1.49fair odd
EV -0.803%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.31%66.97%67.02%69.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.401.401.4875.19%71.26%71.43%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.08%5.24fair odd
EV +0.765%
Edge +0.145%
Kelly +0.179%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 5.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.77%19.16%19.15%20.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.834.805.2822.73%20.71%20.83%18.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Serbia (Local): 13.89%; Netherlands (Visit): 67.02%; Draw: 19.08%. For Serbia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.20. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.55I 13.25%NM 12.72%EV +4.88%E +0.646%K +0.744%G +0.036% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.09%EV -6.84%E -4.92%K -17.53%G +0.000% | 5.28I 18.94%NM 18.19%EV +0.765%E +0.145%K +0.179%G +0.001% | 4.1% | 2026-09-27 15:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.95%EV +4.18%E +0.558%K +0.643%G +0.027% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.38%EV -4.82%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.67%EV -0.762%E -0.146%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.27%EV +1.40%E +0.192%K +0.223%G +0.003% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.74%EV -4.15%E -2.91%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.99%EV -2.67%E -0.524%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-27 15:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.91%EV +1.40%E +0.192%K +0.223%G +0.003% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.37%EV -4.82%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -13.17%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.91%EV +1.40%E +0.192%K +0.223%G +0.003% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.37%EV -4.82%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -13.17%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.03I 14.22%NM 13.71%EV -2.35%E -0.334%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.89%EV -4.82%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.40%EV +0.002%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-27 15:46 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV -2.76%E -0.395%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.95%EV -3.48%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV -4.58%E -0.916%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-27 15:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -2.76%E -0.395%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.50%E -3.90%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -10.30%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 15:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -2.76%E -0.395%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.60%EV -5.50%E -3.90%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -10.30%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 15:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -2.76%E -0.395%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.78%EV -8.18%E -5.97%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -6.49%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-27 15:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -2.76%E -0.395%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -8.85%E -6.50%K -24.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.35%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-27 15:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -2.76%E -0.395%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -10.19%E -7.60%K -29.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -6.49%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-27 15:39 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.91%EV -5.54%E -0.815%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.55%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.54%EV -2.67%E -0.524%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-27 15:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -6.24%E -0.924%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -12.21%E -2.65%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-27 15:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.20%EV -6.24%E -0.924%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.00%EV -10.86%E -8.16%K -32.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -14.12%E -3.14%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -12.21%E -2.65%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-27 13:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.00%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.57%EV -3.62%E -0.718%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-27 15:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -4.82%E -3.40%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -9.35%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-27 15:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -8.40%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-27 15:46 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -9.35%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-27 13:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.94%EV -7.51%E -5.44%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -6.49%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.53%EV -7.51%E -5.44%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -16.03%E -3.64%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-27 15:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -9.71%E -1.49%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.53%EV -7.51%E -5.44%K -19.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -16.03%E -3.64%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-27 15:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -13.18%E -2.11%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -4.58%E -0.916%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-27 15:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -13.18%E -2.11%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.45%EV -8.18%E -5.97%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.77%EV -0.762%E -0.146%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -13.18%E -2.11%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.21%EV -8.18%E -5.97%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.06%EV -2.67%E -0.524%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -16.65%E -2.78%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -0.803%E -0.543%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -8.40%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.65%E -2.78%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -3.48%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -8.40%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-27 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.65%E -2.78%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -3.48%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -8.40%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-27 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -16.65%E -2.78%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -3.48%E -2.42%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -8.40%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-27 15:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -16.65%E -2.78%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -6.17%E -4.40%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -14.12%E -3.14%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-27 13:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.18% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.33% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.49% | 0.2% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.09% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77% | 0.5% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.09% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77% | 0.5% | 2026-09-27 15:55 |