Language:English
Portugal v Norway
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Portugal (Local)
Prediction 57.24%1.75fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.25%57.27%57.19%58.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.641.651.7162.50%61.01%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Norway (Visit)
Prediction 21.31%4.69fair odd
EV +2.28%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.599%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.05%21.27%21.37%23.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.434.404.8025.32%22.57%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.45%4.66fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.289%
Kelly -0.370%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.18%21.47%21.44%23.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.364.354.6025.00%22.95%22.99%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portugal (Local): 57.24%; Norway (Visit): 21.31%; Draw: 21.45%. For Norway (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.69. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.47%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.10%EV +2.28%E +0.474%K +0.599%G +0.014% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.47%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.10%EV +2.28%E +0.474%K +0.599%G +0.014% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.32%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.50%EV +1.21%E +0.255%K +0.323%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.17%EV -1.33%E -0.289%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.32%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.50%EV +1.21%E +0.255%K +0.323%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.17%EV -1.33%E -0.289%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.32%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.50%EV +1.21%E +0.255%K +0.323%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.17%EV -1.33%E -0.289%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.79%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV +1.21%E +0.255%K +0.323%G +0.004% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.43%EV +0.357%E +0.076%K +0.096%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.97%EV -6.05%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.30%EV -0.921%E -0.198%K -0.252%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -1.99%E -0.432%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 18:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -6.69%E -4.11%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -1.99%E -0.432%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -4.98%E -3.00%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.12%EV -3.26%E -0.719%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.12%EV -2.62%E -0.577%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -2.11%E -1.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.98%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -8.84%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 18:36 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.57%EV -6.69%E -4.11%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -6.69%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.57%EV -6.69%E -4.11%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -6.69%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -8.84%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -9.91%E -2.36%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-04 18:26 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -8.41%E -5.26%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -4.12%E -0.915%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -9.91%E -2.36%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.72%EV -6.69%E -4.11%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%EV -5.18%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%EV -4.55%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.12%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-04 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.46%EV -7.84%E -4.87%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.46%EV -7.84%E -4.87%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.61%EV -8.41%E -5.26%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.44%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 18:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.61%EV -8.41%E -5.26%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.44%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -8.41%E -5.26%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -8.84%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -8.41%E -5.26%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -8.84%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -8.41%E -5.26%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -6.25%E -1.42%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -8.84%E -2.08%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.72%EV -7.31%E -1.68%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.72%EV -6.69%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 17:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 15:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.22%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.80%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.95%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.95%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -5.62%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -7.84%E -4.87%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.20%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -7.12%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-04 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.20%E -3.55%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -7.74%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.20%E -3.55%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -4.98%E -3.00%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -8.38%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-04 16:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -10.51%E -2.50%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -9.91%E -2.36%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 16:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -10.51%E -2.50%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -9.91%E -2.36%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.14%EV -6.12%E -3.73%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -12.64%E -3.08%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -7.77%E -1.81%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.61%EV -6.12%E -3.73%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -14.77%E -3.69%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.18%EV -1.33%E -0.289%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 18:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -14.77%E -3.69%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -14.20%E -3.55%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.49%EV -7.27%E -4.49%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -15.84%E -4.01%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -3.48%E -0.773%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-04 18:06 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.12% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.87% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 1.1% | 2026-10-04 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.87% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51% | 1.1% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.01% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44% | 1.4% | 2026-10-04 18:41 |