Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Portugal v Norway

2026-10-04 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Testa a testa

28 bookmaker (8 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Portugal (Casa)

Previsione 55.06%1.82quota equa
EV -4.75%
Vantaggio -2.75%
Kelly -6.51%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.73

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
53.82%55.17%55.09%56.27%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.611.681.701.7362.11%59.49%58.82%57.80%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Norway (Trasferta)

Previsione 22.11%4.52quota equa
EV -2.72%
Vantaggio -0.617%
Kelly -0.799%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.40

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
21.20%22.07%22.06%24.40%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
3.754.234.254.4026.67%23.64%23.53%22.73%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 22.83%4.38quota equa
EV +3.89%
Vantaggio +0.855%
Kelly +1.10%
Crescita +0.043%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.55

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
21.32%22.76%22.85%24.15%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
3.703.983.904.5527.03%25.10%25.64%21.98%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Per Testa a testa, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stima queste probabilità: Portugal (Casa): 55.06%; Norway (Trasferta): 22.11%; Pareggio: 22.83%. Per Pareggio, questa stima equivale a una quota decimale equa di 4.38. 2 bookmaker offrono quote superiori a tale livello; la migliore quota disponibile è 4.55, con un valore atteso positivo del +3.89%.

Quote dei bookmaker (28 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.07%EV -4.75%E -2.75%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.61%EV -5.15%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.32%EV +3.89%E +0.855%K +1.10%G +0.043%3.1%2026-09-29 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.11%EV -5.85%E -3.42%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.57%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.32%EV +2.75%E +0.611%K +0.785%G +0.022%4.2%2026-09-29 10:34
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -8.05%E -4.82%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -4.10%E -0.977%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-29 10:10
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -17.09%E -4.56%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -4.10%E -0.977%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-29 12:35
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.39%EV -6.95%E -4.11%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -4.93%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -6.38%E -1.56%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-29 10:05
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -6.38%E -1.56%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-29 10:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -8.67%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-29 10:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -8.05%E -4.82%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -4.26%E -0.985%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -8.67%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-29 10:10
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -8.05%E -4.82%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.67%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-29 09:00
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.05%E -4.82%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.67%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-29 09:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.05%E -4.82%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.56%E -2.89%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -8.67%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-29 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.79%EV -9.71%E -5.92%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.75%EV -12.67%E -3.21%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -8.67%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-29 10:49
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.79%EV -7.50%E -4.47%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -9.81%E -2.48%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-29 10:55
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 09:55
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 09:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 10:00
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 10:00
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 09:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 10:00
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -2.72%E -0.617%K -0.799%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 09:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.39%EV -11.36%E -7.05%K -18.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -9.35%E -2.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-29 10:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.46%EV -10.81%E -6.67%K -17.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.92%EV -14.88%E -3.86%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -10.95%E -2.81%K -3.78%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-29 10:50
Suprabets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.13%EV -6.40%E -3.77%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -7.14%E -1.70%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.96%EV -12.32%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-29 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.55%EV -8.61%E -5.18%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.31%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV -14.38%E -3.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-29 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.55%EV -8.61%E -5.18%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.31%EV -6.03%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV -14.38%E -3.83%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-29 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.56%EV -10.81%E -6.67%K -17.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -9.35%E -2.28%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.89%EV -15.52%E -4.19%K -5.75%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-29 09:55
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (3)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 42.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 17.95%1.90I 52.63%NM 39.69%32.6%2026-09-29 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 42.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 17.95%1.90I 52.63%NM 39.69%32.6%2026-09-29 14:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 42.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 17.92%1.89I 52.91%NM 39.81%32.9%2026-09-29 13:40