Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Poland v Bosnia & Herzegovina

2026-09-25 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Poland (Local)

Prediction 60.57%1.65fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -6.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.10%60.57%60.57%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.561.5966.67%64.21%64.10%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit)

Prediction 16.55%6.04fair odd
EV +0.957%
Edge +0.157%
Kelly +0.188%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.89%16.60%16.55%17.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.565.506.1018.87%18.00%18.18%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.88%4.37fair odd
EV -0.914%
Edge -0.211%
Kelly -0.274%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.38%22.83%22.88%23.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.884.064.004.3325.77%24.65%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Poland (Local): 60.57%; Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit): 16.55%; Draw: 22.88%. For Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.04. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.10, producing a positive expected value of +0.957%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.73%EV -4.91%E -3.13%K -8.62%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.89%EV +0.957%E +0.157%K +0.188%G +0.002%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.38%EV -0.914%E -0.211%K -0.274%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-20 20:39
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.18%EV -3.70%E -2.33%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.35%EV -1.53%E -0.256%K -0.308%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.47%EV -0.914%E -0.211%K -0.274%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-20 20:44
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.15%E -6.10%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.06%EV -5.66%E -0.994%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 20:39
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -4.91%E -3.13%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:40
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.52%E -3.54%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.15%E -6.10%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.97%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.47%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-20 20:39
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.76%EV -4.31%E -2.73%K -7.42%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -10.63%E -1.97%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.75%EV -5.03%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-21 00:50
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.76%EV -4.31%E -2.73%K -7.42%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -10.63%E -1.97%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.75%EV -5.03%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-21 00:45
Suprabets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.10%EV -6.12%E -3.95%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.29%EV -12.28%E -2.32%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.61%EV -11.21%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.96%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%177.8%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.96%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.02%177.8%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 32.90%1.05I 95.24%NM 32.90%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.20%189.5%2026-08-20 20:39

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