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Poland v Bosnia & Herzegovina

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 18:47 UTC

Final: Poland 0–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Poland (Local)

Prediction 62.17%1.61fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -6.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.69%62.03%62.14%63.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.501.5569.44%66.29%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit)

Prediction 16.00%6.25fair odd
EV -0.780%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.00%16.07%15.95%17.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.845.906.2018.52%17.12%16.95%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.83%4.58fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.591%
Kelly -0.762%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.13%21.90%21.91%23.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.224.254.4625.00%23.70%23.53%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Poland (Local): 62.17%; Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit): 16.00%; Draw: 21.83%. For Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.20, with an expected value of -0.780%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.77%EV -3.64%E -2.35%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.97%EV -5.58%E -0.946%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -11.59%E -2.86%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.77%EV -3.64%E -2.35%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.97%EV -5.58%E -0.946%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -11.59%E -2.86%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 18:45
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.64%E -2.35%K -6.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -12.68%E -3.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 18:40
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.27%EV -4.26%E -2.77%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 16.23%EV -5.42%E -0.917%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.50%EV -2.64%E -0.591%K -0.762%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.64%EV -4.89%E -3.19%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.58%EV -1.58%E -0.257%K -0.307%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -3.94%E -0.897%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 18:40
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -4.89%E -3.19%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.97%EV -5.47%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 18:45
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.07%EV -4.89%E -3.19%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.10%EV -5.58%E -0.946%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.83%EV -5.04%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-25 18:45
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -4.89%E -3.19%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -7.98%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -5.47%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -4.89%E -3.19%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -7.98%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -5.47%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.66%EV -4.89%E -3.19%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -7.98%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -6.13%E -1.43%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 18:45
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -5.51%E -3.62%K -10.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.98%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -7.22%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -5.51%E -3.62%K -10.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -7.98%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -7.22%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 17:55
Suprabets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.80%EV -6.13%E -4.06%K -12.02%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -0.780%E -0.126%K -0.150%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -5.47%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 18:42
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.39%EV -6.13%E -4.06%K -12.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -6.13%E -1.43%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-25 18:39
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 18:40
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 18:40
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -11.98%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -3.94%E -0.897%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-25 18:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -11.98%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -5.04%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 18:15
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.98%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-25 18:00
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -6.75%E -4.50%K -13.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -11.98%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.68%E -3.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-25 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.64%EV -7.37%E -4.95%K -15.05%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -13.58%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -6.13%E -1.43%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-25 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.88%EV -7.99%E -5.40%K -16.65%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.79%EV -7.18%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-25 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -7.99%E -5.40%K -16.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -7.98%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.68%E -3.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-25 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -7.99%E -5.40%K -16.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -7.98%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.68%E -3.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-25 18:40
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -9.86%E -6.80%K -21.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -6.13%E -1.43%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-25 18:44
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -10.48%E -7.28%K -23.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -3.98%E -0.663%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -12.68%E -3.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-25 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.78%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-25 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.34%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-25 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.51%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%1.3%2026-09-25 18:45