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Poland v Bosnia & Herzegovina

2026-09-25 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Poland (Local)

Prediction 60.39%1.66fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.31%60.28%60.41%61.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.561.6167.57%64.66%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit)

Prediction 16.43%6.09fair odd
EV -0.605%
Edge -0.100%
Kelly -0.120%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.96%16.43%16.36%18.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.495.506.0521.28%18.22%18.18%16.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.18%4.31fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.631%
Kelly -0.829%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%23.29%23.23%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.964.004.2026.67%25.25%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Poland (Local): 60.39%; Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit): 16.43%; Draw: 23.18%. For Bosnia & Herzegovina (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.09. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 6.05, with an expected value of -0.605%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.29%EV -2.77%E -1.72%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.59%EV -3.89%E -0.665%K -0.802%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -2.65%E -0.631%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-09 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.92%EV -3.98%E -2.50%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 16.01%EV -0.605%E -0.100%K -0.120%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%EV -2.65%E -0.631%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-09 17:30
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -4.58%E -2.90%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.96%EV -3.07%E -0.520%K -0.626%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -10.76%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -4.58%E -2.90%K -7.90%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.96%EV -3.07%E -0.520%K -0.626%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -10.76%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 18:25
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -5.18%E -3.30%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -5.18%E -3.30%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -14.57%E -2.80%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -11.92%E -3.14%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:40
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.75%EV -5.79%E -3.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 20:39
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.55%EV -6.39%E -4.12%K -11.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -9.61%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 12:20
Suprabets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.59%EV -6.99%E -4.54%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -11.28%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.41%EV -9.14%E -2.33%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 14:55
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.41%E -6.27%K -18.82%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.06%EV -6.36%E -1.11%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 20:39
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.41%E -6.27%K -18.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-20 20:39
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.41%E -6.27%K -18.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.29%E -1.82%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 06:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.69%EV -9.41%E -6.27%K -18.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.05%EV -13.75%E -2.62%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.26%EV -10.76%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-08 18:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.91%EV -10.01%E -6.72%K -20.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -21.14%E -4.40%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.80%EV -10.76%E -2.80%K -3.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-08 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.49%EV -10.62%E -7.17%K -22.12%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.42%EV -22.78%E -4.85%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.09%EV -13.08%E -3.49%K -4.76%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-08 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 53.31%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.28%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.40%20.2%2026-09-09 11:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 53.31%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.28%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.40%20.2%2026-09-09 11:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 53.31%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.28%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.40%20.2%2026-09-09 11:05