The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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North Macedonia v Slovenia

2026-11-16 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Macedonia (Local)

Prediction 16.12%6.20fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.243%
Kelly +0.289%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 6.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.95%16.14%16.13%17.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.635.506.3020.00%17.77%18.18%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Slovenia (Visit)

Prediction 58.20%1.72fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.65%58.12%58.17%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.601.6764.52%62.00%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.69%3.89fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.698%
Kelly -0.948%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.76%25.74%25.70%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.573.523.7930.77%28.01%28.37%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: North Macedonia (Local): 16.12%; Slovenia (Visit): 58.20%; Draw: 25.69%. For North Macedonia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.20. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.30, producing a positive expected value of +1.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.95%EV +1.53%E +0.243%K +0.289%G +0.004%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.88%EV -6.89%E -4.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-14 00:29
Betsson🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.95%EV +1.53%E +0.243%K +0.289%G +0.004%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.88%EV -6.89%E -4.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-14 00:30
1xBet🎯6.27I 15.95%NM 15.47%EV +1.05%E +0.167%K +0.199%G +0.002%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.80%EV -3.98%E -2.41%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.73%EV -3.16%E -0.838%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-13 21:55
Caesars🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +0.727%E +0.116%K +0.139%G +0.001%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.38%EV -7.47%E -4.70%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.96%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-13 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.46%EV -0.078%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.79%EV -5.14%E -3.15%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.76%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-13 21:45
Pinnacle🎯6.18I 16.18%NM 15.40%EV -0.401%E -0.065%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.89%E -4.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.11%EV -2.65%E -0.698%K -0.948%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-14 00:35
BetOnline.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -3.30%E -0.550%K -0.660%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.72%E -3.53%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.48%EV -4.19%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-13 22:40
LowVig.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -3.30%E -0.550%K -0.660%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.72%E -3.53%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.48%EV -4.19%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-13 22:39
Bovada🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -3.30%E -0.550%K -0.660%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.36%EV -8.05%E -5.09%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -3.67%E -0.979%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-13 23:55
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -3.30%E -0.550%K -0.660%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.63%E -5.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-13 21:54
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -7.33%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -5.72%E -3.53%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-13 21:55
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -7.33%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.63%E -5.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 21:45
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -7.33%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.63%E -5.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 21:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -7.33%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.51%EV -8.63%E -5.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 21:45
theScore Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -5.72%E -3.53%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-13 21:55
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.47%EV -6.30%E -3.92%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-13 23:05
LeoVegas🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -6.89%E -4.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -6.24%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-13 22:15
BetUS🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -6.89%E -4.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.53%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-13 21:55
Casumo🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -5.72%E -3.53%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-13 21:55
MyBookie.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.42%EV -6.89%E -4.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.81%E -2.48%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 21:54
ReBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.56%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.27%EV -7.47%E -4.70%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.17%EV -10.61%E -3.05%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-13 21:55
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.63%E -5.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-13 21:45
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -11.36%E -2.07%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.63%E -5.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-13 22:15
Unibet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:34
TABtouch🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:35
BetRivers🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:34
LiveScore Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:35
Virgin Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:34
Unibet (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:34
ATG (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:35
Bally Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:35
Grosvenor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.98%EV -2.81%E -1.68%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 22:34
Winamax (DE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.04%EV -6.89%E -4.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -3.67%E -0.979%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-13 21:55
Bet Victor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.81%EV -9.80%E -6.32%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-13 22:49
betano_uk🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.81%EV -9.80%E -6.32%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-13 22:48
Betclic (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.53%EV -12.97%E -2.40%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.59%EV -9.80%E -6.32%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -11.38%E -3.30%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-13 21:54
Winamax (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -17.81%E -3.49%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.09%EV -9.21%E -5.91%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -10.09%E -2.88%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-13 21:55
PMU (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.47%EV -19.42%E -3.88%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.65%EV -8.63%E -5.50%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -16.52%E -5.08%K -7.34%G +0.000%14.5%2026-11-13 22:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 13.81%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%3.5%2026-11-14 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 13.81%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%3.5%2026-11-14 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 13.81%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%3.5%2026-11-14 00:55