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Liechtenstein v Lithuania

2026-09-24 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liechtenstein (Local)

Prediction 10.27%9.74fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.271%
Kelly +0.301%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.69%10.30%10.23%11.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.779.0010.0013.33%11.40%11.11%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lithuania (Visit)

Prediction 67.25%1.49fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -7.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.45%67.19%67.21%67.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.381.391.4475.76%72.46%71.94%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.48%4.45fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -0.777%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.50%22.51%22.55%23.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.084.104.3026.67%24.48%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Liechtenstein (Local): 10.27%; Lithuania (Visit): 67.25%; Draw: 22.48%. For Liechtenstein (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.74. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 10.00, producing a positive expected value of +2.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.69%EV +2.71%E +0.271%K +0.301%G +0.008%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.77%EV -3.83%E -2.68%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54%EV -3.34%E -0.777%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-09 14:05
1xBet🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.92%EV +0.659%E +0.067%K +0.075%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 67.48%EV -3.16%E -2.19%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%EV -3.34%E -0.777%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-09 14:10
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
BetRivers🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-25 06:59
ATG (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-25 06:59
FanDuel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.80%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 14:35
BoyleSports🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.80%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 22:10
Suprabets🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.86%EV -7.87%E -5.74%K -21.27%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 22.96%EV -10.31%E -2.58%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 13:58
Betclic (FR)🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.20%EV -10.13%E -1.16%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.61%EV -9.89%E -7.38%K -29.08%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.18%EV -13.46%E -3.49%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-24 09:03
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -12.69%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.39%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -12.69%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.39%EV -5.85%E -4.18%K -14.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 20:40
LeoVegas🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -12.69%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.04%EV -8.54%E -6.28%K -23.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-25 17:59
Paddy Power🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -12.69%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.88%EV -10.56%E -7.94%K -31.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -5.59%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-29 14:34
Betsson🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV -14.75%E -1.78%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.36%EV -7.20%E -5.21%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -8.96%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 14:50
NordicBet🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV -14.75%E -1.78%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.36%EV -7.20%E -5.21%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -8.96%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 14:44
Winamax (DE)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.35%EV -20.40%E -2.63%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.11%EV -10.56%E -7.94%K -31.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -12.33%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-25 06:59
Winamax (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.52%EV -22.97%E -3.06%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 65.45%EV -11.23%E -8.51%K -35.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.04%EV -15.70%E -4.19%K -5.71%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-24 09:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 31.97%1.01I 99.01%NM 35.77%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.26%176.8%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 31.97%1.01I 99.01%NM 35.77%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.26%176.8%2026-09-06 16:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 31.97%1.01I 99.01%NM 35.77%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.26%176.8%2026-08-30 16:45