Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liechtenstein v Lithuania

2026-09-24 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liechtenstein (Local)

Prediction 10.10%9.90fair odd
EV -0.039%
Edge -0.004%
Kelly -0.004%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.46%10.20%10.10%11.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.309.029.009.9012.05%11.08%11.11%10.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lithuania (Visit)

Prediction 67.57%1.48fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -7.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.36%67.50%67.57%69.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.391.401.4376.92%72.18%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.33%4.48fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.394%
Kelly -0.510%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.40%22.29%22.33%23.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.974.144.104.4025.19%24.13%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Liechtenstein (Local): 10.10%; Lithuania (Visit): 67.57%; Draw: 22.33%. For Liechtenstein (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.904. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 9.900, with an expected value of -0.039%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯9.90I 10.10%NM 9.78%EV -0.039%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.21%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%EV -1.73%E -0.394%K -0.510%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-20 20:39
1xBet🎯9.70I 10.31%NM 10.01%EV -2.06%E -0.212%K -0.237%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.92%EV -3.38%E -2.36%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07%EV -1.73%E -0.394%K -0.510%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-20 20:44
FanDuel🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -4.08%E -0.429%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.65%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-20 20:39
Paddy Power🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -4.08%E -0.429%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.14%EV -12.16%E -9.35%K -40.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-20 20:39
Suprabets🎯9.10I 10.99%NM 10.07%EV -8.12%E -0.892%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.86%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.08%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.07%EV -11.34%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 20:40
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -9.13%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -8.43%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
BetRivers🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -9.13%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -8.43%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:40
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -9.13%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -8.43%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -9.13%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -8.43%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -14.18%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.39%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.43%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 20:39
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -14.18%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.39%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.43%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 20:40
Betsson🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV -16.19%E -1.95%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.36%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -9.55%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 20:39
NordicBet🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.03%EV -16.19%E -1.95%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.36%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -9.55%E -2.36%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 20:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-20 20:39

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