The School of Odds
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Italy v Belgium

2026-09-25 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Italy (Local)

Prediction 47.61%2.10fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%47.61%47.61%48.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.981.952.0752.36%50.54%51.28%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgium (Visit)

Prediction 27.40%3.65fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.769%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.11%27.40%27.40%27.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.483.503.5529.41%28.77%28.57%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.99%4.00fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%24.99%24.99%26.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.473.753.803.8228.82%26.66%26.32%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Italy (Local): 47.61%; Belgium (Visit): 27.40%; Draw: 24.99%. For Italy (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.07, with an expected value of -1.44%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.95%EV -1.44%E -0.697%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.61%EV -3.55%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.44%EV -4.55%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-12 00:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.31%EV -2.73%E -0.769%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.38%EV -4.55%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-12 00:19
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 00:54
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.16%E -3.67%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.05%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 23:19
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -7.63%E -3.93%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.05%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 23:19
Suprabets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.48%EV -8.11%E -4.20%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.11%EV -3.83%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.41%EV -13.29%E -3.83%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-11 23:30
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -9.06%E -4.74%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.05%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 01:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%192.2%2026-08-12 02:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%192.2%2026-08-12 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-12 01:55

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