The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Italy v Belgium

2026-09-25 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Italy (Local)

Prediction 44.64%2.24fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.811%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.09%44.50%44.70%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.122.2050.00%47.34%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgium (Visit)

Prediction 29.19%3.43fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.66%29.35%29.16%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.103.3233.33%31.79%32.26%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.16%3.82fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%26.15%26.14%26.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.383.553.603.6629.59%28.13%27.78%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Italy (Local): 44.64%; Belgium (Visit): 29.19%; Draw: 26.16%. For Italy (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -1.78%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -1.78%E -0.811%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 17:54
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.31%EV -3.12%E -1.44%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.13%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.56%EV -5.28%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-20 23:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.61%EV -4.02%E -1.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.89%EV -3.08%E -0.929%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.50%EV -5.28%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 23:19
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -4.02%E -1.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 18:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.02%E -1.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 17:54
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.02%E -1.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.02%E -1.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.28%EV -4.02%E -1.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.51%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -7.12%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 17:54
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -4.46%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 20:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -4.46%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 20:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -4.46%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 20:34
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -4.46%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 20:34
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -4.46%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 20:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -4.46%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 20:35
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.55%EV -4.46%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 20:34
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.62%EV -5.35%E -2.53%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 20:34
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.62%EV -5.35%E -2.53%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 20:34
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.32%EV -6.25%E -2.98%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -3.08%E -0.929%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.01%EV -4.24%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 04:54
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.25%E -2.98%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 18:04
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -6.25%E -2.98%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -9.73%E -2.82%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-21 01:13
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.25%E -2.98%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-21 00:58
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.25%E -2.98%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.04%E -3.25%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.25%E -2.98%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 17:54
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -7.14%E -3.43%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 17:59
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -7.14%E -3.43%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 17:57
PMU (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -7.14%E -3.43%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 04:30
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.48%E -4.14%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.81%E -1.61%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 17:59
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.48%E -4.14%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 17:54
Suprabets🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.02%EV -8.93%E -4.38%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.88%EV -7.17%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.09%EV -7.90%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 17:51
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -9.82%E -4.86%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -10.97%E -3.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.44%EV -11.56%E -3.42%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 17:53
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.71%E -5.36%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -8.42%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.36%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.18%2.2%2026-09-21 00:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.36%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.18%2.2%2026-09-21 00:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.36%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.18%2.2%2026-09-21 00:19