The School of Odds
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Italy v Belgium

2026-09-25 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Italy (Local)

Prediction 47.15%2.12fair odd
EV +0.900%
Edge +0.421%
Kelly +0.790%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%47.13%47.31%48.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.961.952.1453.19%50.90%51.28%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgium (Visit)

Prediction 26.75%3.74fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.282%
Kelly -0.386%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%26.78%26.67%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.483.543.7031.75%28.77%28.29%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.10%3.83fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.766%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.22%26.09%26.02%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.603.7530.30%28.22%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Italy (Local): 47.15%; Belgium (Visit): 26.75%; Draw: 26.10%. For Italy (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.14, producing a positive expected value of +0.900%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.40%EV +0.900%E +0.421%K +0.790%G +0.007%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.84%EV -5.50%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-31 07:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.71%EV -0.043%E -0.020%K -0.038%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.53%EV -5.86%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.77%EV -5.50%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-31 06:55
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -3.34%E -1.63%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -13.85%E -4.20%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 07:35
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.70%E -2.85%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.11%E -0.562%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-24 13:49
Suprabets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.41%EV -6.64%E -3.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.95%EV -8.80%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -9.94%E -2.88%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-24 16:47
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -1.04%E -0.282%K -0.386%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:45
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -1.04%E -0.282%K -0.386%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 16:43
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.41%E -0.922%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-24 13:46
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 20:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 20:24
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 20:39
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.92%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.77%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.31%EV -12.55%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-25 17:59
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.06%E -4.13%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -14.41%E -4.50%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -8.63%E -2.47%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-31 22:05
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -8.53%E -4.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.41%E -0.922%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 13:49
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -8.53%E -4.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 17:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -8.53%E -4.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 20:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -8.53%E -4.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 20:19
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -8.53%E -4.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 20:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -8.53%E -4.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -5.05%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -6.02%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-20 20:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.65%EV -9.94%E -5.21%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.60%EV -10.40%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.76%EV -13.07%E -3.93%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-24 12:22
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.28%EV -10.42%E -5.48%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -14.41%E -4.50%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -12.55%E -3.75%K -5.34%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-24 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.16%EV -11.36%E -6.04%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.55%EV -15.75%E -5.00%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.30%EV -13.85%E -4.20%K -6.02%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-24 12:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 39.38%2.02I 49.50%NM 21.25%1.09I 91.74%NM 39.38%133.0%2026-08-31 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 39.38%2.02I 49.50%NM 21.25%1.09I 91.74%NM 39.38%133.0%2026-08-28 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 41.06%2.02I 49.50%NM 20.53%1.08I 92.59%NM 38.40%141.1%2026-08-28 22:25