The School of Odds
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Italy v Belgium

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 18:45 UTC

Final: Italy 0–2 Belgium

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Italy (Local)

Prediction 44.33%2.26fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.13%44.23%44.31%45.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.152.2048.78%46.76%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgium (Visit)

Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.314%
Kelly -0.445%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.16%29.19%29.06%31.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.153.4134.48%31.56%31.75%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.445%
Kelly -0.610%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%26.58%26.63%27.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.503.503.6930.30%28.60%28.57%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Italy (Local): 44.33%; Belgium (Visit): 29.01%; Draw: 26.66%. For Belgium (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.41, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-25 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -11.52%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -11.52%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:10
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -11.52%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -11.52%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:05
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -2.47%E -1.12%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -11.52%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-25 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.49%EV -3.35%E -1.54%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.87%EV -2.52%E -0.751%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.64%EV -2.97%E -0.817%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-25 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.81%EV -4.24%E -1.96%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.38%EV -1.07%E -0.314%K -0.445%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.81%EV -3.77%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-25 18:40
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.64%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.35%EV -5.13%E -1.57%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.01%EV -1.64%E -0.445%K -0.610%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-25 18:40
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 17:43
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-25 17:55
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-25 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.16%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-25 17:44
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -9.37%E -2.76%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 18:33
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-25 13:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -4.68%E -2.18%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -15.87%E -5.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -9.37%E -2.76%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-25 18:10
Suprabets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -5.13%E -2.40%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 18:22
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -5.13%E -2.40%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -14.42%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -9.37%E -2.76%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-25 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -5.13%E -2.40%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -14.42%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -9.37%E -2.76%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-25 18:05
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.01%E -2.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.81%E -0.840%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.01%E -2.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -2.81%E -0.840%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 18:25
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -6.01%E -2.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-25 18:19
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -6.01%E -2.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-25 16:40
Bovada🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.60%EV -6.46%E -3.06%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-25 18:30
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-25 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.71%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.37%E -2.76%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 18:20
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.37%E -2.76%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-25 18:25
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.90%E -3.29%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-25 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -8.61%E -2.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-25 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-25 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -9.12%E -4.45%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.07%E -3.25%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-25 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.37%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-09-25 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.37%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-09-25 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.37%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-09-25 18:40