The School of Odds
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Iceland v Estonia

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:00 UTC

Final: Iceland 1–1 Estonia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iceland (Local)

Prediction 74.67%1.34fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -4.07%
Kelly -19.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.73%74.66%74.54%77.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.241.251.2784.75%80.45%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estonia (Visit)

Prediction 8.90%11.23fair odd
EV +11.28%
Edge +0.903%
Kelly +0.981%
Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.39%8.80%8.94%10.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.6610.5012.5011.11%9.38%9.52%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.43%6.09fair odd
EV +3.51%
Edge +0.557%
Kelly +0.662%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 6.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.04%16.54%16.53%19.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.565.606.3021.05%18.00%17.86%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iceland (Local): 74.67%; Estonia (Visit): 8.90%; Draw: 16.43%. For Estonia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.23. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.35%EV -5.92%E -4.70%K -22.76%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV +11.28%E +0.903%K +0.981%G +0.111%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -21.14%E -4.40%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-26 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.35%EV -5.92%E -4.70%K -22.76%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV +11.28%E +0.903%K +0.981%G +0.111%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -21.14%E -4.40%K -5.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-26 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.68%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.99%EV +6.83%E +0.569%K +0.621%G +0.042%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.34%EV +2.68%E +0.430%K +0.511%G +0.014%4.3%2026-09-26 15:55
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.99%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +6.83%E +0.569%K +0.621%G +0.042%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.10%EV -3.07%E -0.520%K -0.626%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 15:54
Suprabets🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.06%EV -8.16%E -6.63%K -35.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +6.83%E +0.569%K +0.621%G +0.042%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.04%EV +3.51%E +0.557%K +0.662%G +0.023%5.5%2026-09-26 15:57
TAB🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.14%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +6.83%E +0.569%K +0.621%G +0.042%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -21.96%E -4.62%K -5.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 15:55
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -2.07%E -0.188%K -0.207%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.53%E -0.962%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 15:55
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -2.07%E -0.188%K -0.207%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.53%E -0.962%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -2.07%E -0.188%K -0.207%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.53%E -0.962%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -2.07%E -0.188%K -0.207%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -5.53%E -0.962%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.89%EV -8.91%E -7.30%K -40.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -2.07%E -0.188%K -0.207%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -3.07%E -0.520%K -0.626%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 15:59
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.20%EV -5.17%E -4.07%K -19.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.52%E -0.621%K -0.687%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.83%EV -7.99%E -1.43%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 15:45
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.20%EV -5.17%E -4.07%K -19.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.52%E -0.621%K -0.687%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.83%EV -7.99%E -1.43%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 15:45
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.20%EV -5.17%E -4.07%K -19.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.52%E -0.621%K -0.687%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.83%EV -7.99%E -1.43%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.98%EV -7.41%E -5.98%K -30.88%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -6.52%E -0.621%K -0.687%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -5.53%E -0.962%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-26 15:54
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -10.97%E -1.10%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-26 15:55
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -10.97%E -1.10%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-26 15:55
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -8.16%E -6.63%K -35.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -10.97%E -1.10%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -5.53%E -0.962%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:55
Bovada🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -8.16%E -6.63%K -35.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -10.97%E -1.10%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -5.53%E -0.962%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:58
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.67%E -5.33%K -26.66%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -10.97%E -1.10%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -17.85%E -3.57%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-26 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.04%EV -11.89%E -10.08%K -66.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.86%EV -10.97%E -1.10%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-26 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.70%EV -7.41%E -5.98%K -30.88%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.37%EV -13.20%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV -11.28%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.29%EV -7.41%E -5.98%K -30.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -15.43%E -1.62%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -12.92%E -2.44%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-26 15:46
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.29%EV -7.41%E -5.98%K -30.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.57%EV -15.43%E -1.62%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -12.92%E -2.44%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-26 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.53%EV -9.65%E -7.98%K -45.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -15.43%E -1.62%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -14.57%E -2.80%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-26 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -8.16%E -6.63%K -35.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -19.88%E -2.21%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -1.42%E -0.237%K -0.285%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-26 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.46%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.40%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.14%0.1%2026-09-26 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.80%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.11%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.09%0.4%2026-09-26 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.09%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.54%0.6%2026-09-26 15:55