Language:English
Iceland v Bulgaria
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Iceland (Local)
Prediction 62.16%1.61fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -7.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.48%62.28%62.33%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.491.5469.44%67.20%67.11%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bulgaria (Visit)
Prediction 15.08%6.63fair odd
EV +6.60%
Edge +0.934%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.072%
assuming max odds 7.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.41%14.95%15.07%16.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.376.407.0717.39%15.71%15.63%14.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV -0.305%
Edge -0.070%
Kelly -0.090%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.65%22.77%22.59%24.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.124.154.3826.32%24.28%24.10%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iceland (Local): 62.16%; Bulgaria (Visit): 15.08%; Draw: 22.76%. For Bulgaria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.63. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.94%EV -9.25%E -6.33%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 7.07I 14.14%NM 13.41%EV +6.60%E +0.934%K +1.09%G +0.072% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.65%EV -0.305%E -0.070%K -0.090%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.85%EV -9.87%E -6.81%K -21.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV +5.55%E +0.793%K +0.925%G +0.051% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.72%EV -1.44%E -0.333%K -0.433%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.80%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV +1.78%E +0.263%K +0.309%G +0.005% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.11%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.34%EV -0.484%E -0.073%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -4.40%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 15:57 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.26%EV -4.27%E -2.77%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.64%EV -1.24%E -0.189%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.10%EV -5.54%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 14:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.63%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -1.99%E -0.306%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 15:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -1.99%E -0.306%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.95%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.26%EV -9.25%E -6.33%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -1.99%E -0.306%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 15:57 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.42%EV -9.87%E -6.81%K -21.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -1.99%E -0.306%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.42%EV -9.87%E -6.81%K -21.93%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -1.99%E -0.306%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.58%EV -10.49%E -7.28%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -1.99%E -0.306%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -10.49%E -7.28%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -1.99%E -0.306%K -0.362%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.95%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -3.50%E -0.547%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.31%EV -8.00%E -5.41%K -16.67%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -3.50%E -0.547%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -3.26%E -0.768%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.44%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.63%EV -5.01%E -0.795%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.37%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.44%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.63%EV -5.01%E -0.795%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.37%E -3.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-03 15:56 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.77%EV -7.38%E -4.95%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.96%EV -5.76%E -0.922%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -4.40%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 15:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.75%EV -8.62%E -5.87%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -5.76%E -0.922%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -4.89%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.40%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 15:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -4.89%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.40%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 15:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.91%EV -5.52%E -3.63%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.40%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 15:16 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.40%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.40%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-03 15:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 15:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.04%EV -7.38%E -4.95%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.48%EV -5.52%E -3.63%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -13.51%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 15:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.23%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.23%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.23%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -9.53%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -13.51%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-03 15:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.20%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.56%EV -11.04%E -1.87%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.09%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 15:32 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -13.30%E -2.31%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -6.68%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 15:41 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.17% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.17% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.17% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |