Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denmark v Wales

2026-09-27 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denmark (Local)

Prediction 53.01%1.89fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.22%53.06%53.01%54.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.771.781.8459.52%56.53%56.18%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wales (Visit)

Prediction 20.79%4.81fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -0.947%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.13%20.76%20.79%22.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.374.504.6026.32%22.89%22.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.20%3.82fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.18%26.20%27.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.543.583.6529.85%28.29%27.93%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Denmark (Local): 53.01%; Wales (Visit): 20.79%; Draw: 26.20%. For Denmark (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.84, with an expected value of -2.46%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.27%EV -2.46%E -1.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.37%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -4.39%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-20 01:18
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.67%EV -3.52%E -1.93%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.07%EV -5.40%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -4.39%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 01:19
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.36%E -0.947%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 01:09
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.36%E -0.947%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 00:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 00:54
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -9.97%E -2.30%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -10.94%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 01:54
Suprabets🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.22%EV -5.11%E -2.85%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.36%EV -14.75%E -3.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.42%EV -9.10%E -2.62%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 01:21
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -5.64%E -3.17%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.51%E -1.94%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.32%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 00:55
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -5.64%E -3.17%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.51%E -1.94%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.32%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 01:00
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.81%EV -6.17%E -3.48%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.36%EV -14.75%E -3.60%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -7.01%E -1.97%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 01:09
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.43%EV -6.70%E -3.81%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -4.36%E -0.947%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 01:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.61%EV -6.70%E -3.81%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -10.59%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.86%EV -6.22%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 01:05
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.23%E -4.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 01:09
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -8.29%E -4.79%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -6.44%E -1.43%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -10.94%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 01:15
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -9.35%E -5.47%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -4.36%E -0.947%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 01:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.85%EV -9.88%E -5.81%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.60%EV -18.91%E -4.85%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -9.63%E -2.79%K -3.93%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-20 01:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.45%EV -10.94%E -6.51%K -16.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.75%EV -20.99%E -5.52%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.80%EV -12.25%E -3.66%K -5.21%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-20 01:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 35.68%1.13I 88.50%NM 41.68%2.08I 48.08%NM 22.64%112.3%2026-09-20 03:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.32I 75.76%NM 35.68%1.13I 88.50%NM 41.68%2.08I 48.08%NM 22.64%112.3%2026-09-20 03:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.32I 75.76%NM 35.68%1.13I 88.50%NM 41.68%2.08I 48.08%NM 22.64%112.3%2026-09-20 03:34