The School of Odds
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Denmark v Wales

2026-09-27 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denmark (Local)

Prediction 57.51%1.74fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -5.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.53%57.51%57.51%57.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.651.651.6762.11%60.54%60.42%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wales (Visit)

Prediction 17.47%5.72fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -0.871%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.36%17.47%17.47%19.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.795.115.135.5020.88%19.58%19.51%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.02%4.00fair odd
EV -6.16%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.81%25.02%25.02%25.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.613.703.703.7527.70%27.05%27.03%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Denmark (Local): 57.51%; Wales (Visit): 17.47%; Draw: 25.02%. For Wales (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.72. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.50, with an expected value of -3.92%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -3.96%E -2.37%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.92%E -0.713%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -6.16%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-10 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -3.96%E -2.37%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -12.65%E -2.53%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-10 18:44
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -4.54%E -2.73%K -6.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -8.29%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-10 18:45
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.93%EV -5.11%E -3.10%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.27%EV -16.32%E -3.41%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.81%EV -6.91%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-10 18:45
Suprabets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -5.11%E -3.10%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -16.15%E -3.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.38%EV -9.67%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-10 18:46
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.51%EV -7.41%E -4.60%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.47%EV -7.41%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.41%E -2.00%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-10 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 32.48%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.76%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.76%190.4%2026-08-10 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 32.48%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.76%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.76%190.4%2026-08-10 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-10 19:00

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