The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Denmark v Wales

2026-09-27 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Denmark (Local)

Prediction 57.25%1.75fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.890%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.57%57.25%57.25%57.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.671.671.7262.11%59.93%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wales (Visit)

Prediction 17.62%5.67fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -0.559%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.36%17.62%17.62%19.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.245.305.5020.83%19.10%18.87%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.915%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.02%25.13%25.13%25.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.623.743.703.8427.62%26.77%27.03%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Denmark (Local): 57.25%; Wales (Visit): 17.62%; Draw: 25.13%. For Denmark (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.72, with an expected value of -1.53%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.52%EV -1.53%E -0.890%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 18.17%EV -5.72%E -1.07%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.31%EV -3.51%E -0.915%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-30 01:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.99%EV -2.68%E -1.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.78%EV -3.95%E -0.725%K -0.888%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.23%EV -3.51%E -0.915%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 01:35
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.39%E -2.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -3.07%E -0.559%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -5.77%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-10 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -4.39%E -2.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -11.88%E -2.38%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-10 18:44
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -4.97%E -2.99%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -7.48%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-10 18:45
Suprabets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.57%EV -5.54%E -3.36%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -15.41%E -3.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.33%EV -9.04%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 13:30
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.51%EV -7.83%E -4.86%K -12.83%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.47%EV -6.60%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-10 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 30.41%1.11I 90.09%NM 34.79%1.11I 90.09%NM 34.79%158.9%2026-08-31 03:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 30.22%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.89%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.89%160.6%2026-08-31 03:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 29.05%1.04I 96.15%NM 35.47%1.04I 96.15%NM 35.47%171.0%2026-08-31 03:25