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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Denmark v Wales

开赛时间： 2026-09-27 16:00 UTC

最终结果： Denmark 2–0 Wales

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Denmark (主队)

预测 68.09%1.47公平赔率
EV -3.31%
优势 -2.33%
Kelly -7.89%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.42

博彩公司预测分布
66.68%67.96%68.08%69.35%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.321.381.381.4275.76%72.67%72.46%70.42%最小值均值中位数最大值

Wales (客队)

预测 13.02%7.68公平赔率
EV +4.15%
优势 +0.519%
Kelly +0.593%
增长率 +0.025%

假设最高赔率为 8.00

博彩公司预测分布
11.70%13.15%13.11%14.73%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
6.257.187.008.0016.00%13.92%14.29%12.50%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 18.89%5.29公平赔率
EV +1.83%
优势 +0.339%
Kelly +0.416%
增长率 +0.008%

假设最高赔率为 5.39

博彩公司预测分布
17.84%18.88%18.81%19.79%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.504.924.805.3922.22%20.33%20.83%18.55%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Denmark (主队)：68.09%；Wales (客队)：13.02%；平局：18.89%。 对于“Wales (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为7.68。 当时有7家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为8.00，对应+4.15%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.24%EV -4.68%E -3.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.12%EV +4.15%E +0.519%K +0.593%G +0.025%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.64%EV -1.76%E -0.339%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-27 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.24%EV -4.68%E -3.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.12%EV +4.15%E +0.519%K +0.593%G +0.025%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.64%EV -1.76%E -0.339%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-27 15:35
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +4.15%E +0.519%K +0.593%G +0.025%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.54%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-27 09:40
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.72%E -4.90%K -18.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV +4.15%E +0.519%K +0.593%G +0.025%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-27 15:40
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +4.15%E +0.519%K +0.593%G +0.025%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:35
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.29%EV -6.04%E -4.37%K -15.89%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.08%EV +1.55%E +0.198%K +0.227%G +0.004%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.29%EV -6.04%E -4.37%K -15.89%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.08%EV +1.55%E +0.198%K +0.227%G +0.004%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.26%EV -3.31%E -2.33%K -7.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.92%EV -2.36%E -0.314%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.82%EV -2.71%E -0.525%K -0.652%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-27 15:54
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.55%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.36%E -0.314%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.54%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.55%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.36%E -0.314%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.54%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 15:55
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.55%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -2.36%E -0.314%K -0.363%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -10.26%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -8.76%E -6.54%K -25.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -2.36%E -0.314%K -0.363%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -5.54%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-27 15:54
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.34%EV -3.99%E -2.83%K -9.74%G +0.000%7.22I 13.85%NM 13.35%EV -6.00%E -0.832%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.32%EV -0.628%E -0.119%K -0.147%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-27 15:46
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.68%E -3.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-27 15:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.68%E -3.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-27 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.68%E -3.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-27 15:30
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.68%E -3.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-27 15:30
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -6.04%E -4.37%K -15.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -10.26%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-27 15:50
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.26%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-27 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.44%EV -8.76%E -6.54%K -25.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.10%E -2.85%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-27 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.44%EV -8.76%E -6.54%K -25.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.10%E -2.85%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-27 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.48%EV -10.12%E -7.67%K -31.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -8.87%E -1.27%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -14.99%E -3.33%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-27 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -8.08%E -5.98%K -23.08%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.32%EV -10.17%E -1.47%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.57%EV -6.48%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 15:49
Suprabets🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.79%EV -4.68%E -3.34%K -11.69%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.96%EV -11.47%E -1.69%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.25%EV -1.76%E -0.339%K -0.419%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 15:54
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -6.04%E -4.37%K -15.89%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.76%EV -12.12%E -1.80%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -7.43%E -1.52%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 15:45
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.31%E -2.33%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.42%EV -13.16%E -1.97%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.84%EV +1.83%E +0.339%K +0.416%G +0.008%4.0%2026-09-27 15:50
Bovada🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.15%EV -5.36%E -3.85%K -13.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -15.38%E -2.37%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.48%EV -4.60%E -0.910%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-27 15:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.83%EV -6.72%E -4.90%K -18.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -15.38%E -2.37%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -1.76%E -0.339%K -0.419%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 15:45
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.68%EV -6.04%E -4.37%K -15.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -15.38%E -2.37%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -9.32%E -1.94%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 15:34
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -7.40%E -5.44%K -20.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -15.38%E -2.37%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -10.26%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-27 15:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.21%EV -6.72%E -4.90%K -18.16%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -18.63%E -2.98%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.06%EV -3.65%E -0.716%K -0.890%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-27 15:45
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-09-27 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.96%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%0.7%2026-09-27 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.78%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.70%0.9%2026-09-27 15:55