The School of Odds
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Czech Republic v Croatia

2026-09-26 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Czech Republic (Local)

Prediction 28.67%3.49fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%28.67%28.67%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.023.193.253.3033.11%31.35%30.77%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Croatia (Visit)

Prediction 45.05%2.22fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.12%45.05%45.05%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.082.082.1048.78%48.08%48.08%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.28%3.81fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.387%
Kelly -0.527%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.97%26.28%26.28%26.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.533.633.603.7528.33%27.56%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Czech Republic (Local): 28.67%; Croatia (Visit): 45.05%; Draw: 26.28%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.75, with an expected value of -1.45%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.39%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.39%E -2.57%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-10 21:09
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -5.39%E -2.57%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -1.45%E -0.387%K -0.527%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 21:10
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -6.29%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-10 21:10
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-10 21:15
Suprabets🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 29.89%EV -11.99%E -3.90%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.12%EV -6.29%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.99%EV -7.23%E -2.05%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-10 21:08
1xBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.51%EV -13.42%E -4.44%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.52%EV -6.74%E -3.26%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 24.97%EV -3.03%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-10 21:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%1.04I 96.15%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%192.2%2026-08-10 21:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%1.04I 96.15%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.55%192.2%2026-08-10 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-10 21:15

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