The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Czech Republic v Croatia

2026-09-26 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Czech Republic (Local)

Prediction 28.96%3.45fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%29.01%28.96%29.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.253.3034.48%31.28%30.77%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Croatia (Visit)

Prediction 44.73%2.24fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.516%
Kelly -0.942%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.74%44.66%44.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.072.072.2151.02%48.21%48.31%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.31%3.80fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.358%
Kelly -0.488%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.38%26.32%26.31%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.553.7530.30%28.22%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Czech Republic (Local): 28.96%; Croatia (Visit): 44.73%; Draw: 26.31%. For Croatia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.21, with an expected value of -1.14%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -4.44%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.06%E -2.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-10 21:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 29.55%EV -5.02%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.26%EV -2.03%E -0.929%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -2.66%E -0.718%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 15:19
1xBet🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 29.73%EV -5.31%E -1.62%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.99%EV -1.14%E -0.516%K -0.942%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.28%EV -2.66%E -0.718%K -0.985%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-29 15:24
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -6.06%E -2.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -1.34%E -0.358%K -0.488%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 21:10
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -6.96%E -3.34%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-10 21:10
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.04%EV -7.40%E -3.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 18:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.04%EV -7.40%E -3.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 20:19
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.04%EV -7.40%E -3.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 20:24
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.04%EV -7.40%E -3.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-20 20:39
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.04%EV -7.40%E -3.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-25 06:59
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.04%EV -7.40%E -3.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-25 06:59
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.30%E -4.05%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.29%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-10 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -8.30%E -4.05%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-20 20:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -8.30%E -4.05%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -6.60%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-20 20:24
Suprabets🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 29.31%EV -9.36%E -2.99%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.10%EV -6.96%E -3.34%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.24%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-24 16:47
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -10.23%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -6.06%E -2.89%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.24%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-25 17:59
Betclic (FR)🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 29.15%EV -11.10%E -3.61%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.30%EV -9.64%E -4.77%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.55%EV -11.34%E -3.36%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-24 08:27
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -14.57%E -4.94%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -10.53%E -5.27%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -10.55%E -3.10%K -4.40%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-25 07:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.78%EV -16.02%E -5.52%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.06%EV -12.32%E -6.29%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -13.18%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-25 07:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.54%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.54%1.09I 91.74%NM 34.93%162.7%2026-08-30 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.54%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.54%1.09I 91.74%NM 34.93%162.7%2026-08-30 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.17I 85.47%NM 31.66%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.68%170.0%2026-08-30 07:55