The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Azerbaijan v Lithuania

2026-10-04 13:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Azerbaijan (Local)

Prediction 41.35%2.42fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.89%41.32%41.46%42.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3347.62%44.41%44.44%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lithuania (Visit)

Prediction 28.20%3.55fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.44%28.22%28.18%29.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.283.303.4032.26%30.48%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.45%3.28fair odd
EV +0.800%
Edge +0.242%
Kelly +0.346%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.24%30.46%30.37%31.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.003.3134.72%33.07%33.33%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Azerbaijan (Local): 41.35%; Lithuania (Visit): 28.20%; Draw: 30.45%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.31, producing a positive expected value of +0.800%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -3.66%E -1.57%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.11%EV -6.10%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.29%EV +0.800%E +0.242%K +0.346%G +0.003%3.2%2026-10-02 10:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.70%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.06%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.24%EV -0.114%E -0.035%K -0.050%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 09:59
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-02 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:30
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:25
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:30
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 10:00
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 12:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.60%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 12:30
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -7.12%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 12:29
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -5.72%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.54%E -1.65%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.13%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 09:39
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 11:10
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.59%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-02 12:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 09:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.39%EV -8.20%E -3.70%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.68%EV -6.38%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.94%EV -9.55%E -3.22%K -4.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 09:39
Suprabets🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.39%EV -6.14%E -2.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 28.74%EV -10.05%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.87%EV -9.55%E -3.22%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 11:07
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.87%EV -10.27%E -4.73%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -6.95%E -2.11%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.59%EV -9.55%E -3.22%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-02 09:38
Bovada🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.13%EV -5.31%E -2.32%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -9.77%E -3.05%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -10.16%E -3.45%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 11:13
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.04%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -11.18%E -3.55%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -10.16%E -3.45%K -5.21%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-02 09:40
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.29%EV -11.08%E -3.79%K -5.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 11:29
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.29%EV -11.08%E -3.79%K -5.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 11:10
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.69%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-02 10:15
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.36%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.69%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-02 10:20
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -6.96%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.59%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.30%E -4.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-02 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.75%6.0%2026-10-02 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.75%6.0%2026-10-02 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.75%6.0%2026-10-02 12:46