The School of Odds
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Azerbaijan v Lithuania

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:01 UTC

Final: Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Azerbaijan (Local)

Prediction 34.64%2.89fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%34.72%34.59%36.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.652.652.8039.22%37.74%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lithuania (Visit)

Prediction 32.69%3.06fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -0.647%
Kelly -0.970%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.35%32.68%32.65%34.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.882.903.0036.36%34.76%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.67%3.06fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.662%
Kelly -0.994%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.23%32.60%32.76%33.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.852.883.0037.04%35.03%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Azerbaijan (Local): 34.64%; Lithuania (Visit): 32.69%; Draw: 32.67%. For Lithuania (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -1.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.00%E -1.07%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.06%EV -6.19%E -2.16%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.06%EV -6.23%E -2.17%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 12:55
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -3.00%E -1.07%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.84%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.00%E -1.07%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.74%EV -4.39%E -1.59%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.96%EV -1.94%E -0.647%K -0.970%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.29%EV -5.91%E -2.05%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 12:50
BetUS🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.73%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.48%EV -4.88%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -6.89%E -2.42%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -4.73%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.84%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.89%E -2.42%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 12:59
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%EV -4.73%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.84%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.89%E -2.42%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 12:59
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -4.73%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 12:59
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.73%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -5.86%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 12:53
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -4.73%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -10.11%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -10.16%E -3.69%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 12:40
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.68%EV -5.08%E -1.85%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.66%EV -4.88%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.66%EV -4.93%E -1.69%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 12:59
Suprabets🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.97%EV -6.12%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.91%EV -5.91%E -2.05%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 12:57
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.47%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.84%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 12:35
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.47%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.89%E -2.42%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 12:55
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.47%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -10.11%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -1.99%E -0.662%K -0.994%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 13:00
ReBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.58%EV -6.47%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.99%EV -7.50%E -2.65%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.42%EV -5.91%E -2.05%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:35
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.47%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 12:40
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.47%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -10.16%E -3.69%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 12:59
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.47%E -2.39%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 12:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.68%EV -7.50%E -2.81%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.95%EV -8.15%E -2.90%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.37%EV -6.56%E -2.29%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-04 12:35
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.81%EV -8.20%E -3.09%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.60%EV -7.50%E -2.65%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.60%EV -7.54%E -2.66%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 12:55
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.77%EV -8.20%E -3.09%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -6.84%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 12:55
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.49%EV -8.20%E -3.09%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.87%EV -9.18%E -3.30%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 12:50
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.22%EV -9.24%E -3.53%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.96%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 12:55
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -9.24%E -3.53%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.75%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.12%EV -9.18%E -3.30%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-04 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -9.24%E -3.53%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -10.16%E -3.69%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -9.24%E -3.53%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -10.16%E -3.69%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.59%EV -9.93%E -3.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.05%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -3.62%E -1.23%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 12:55
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -9.93%E -3.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-04 12:59
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -9.93%E -3.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -11.79%E -4.37%K -6.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 12:55
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -9.93%E -3.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.11%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -8.52%E -3.04%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-04 12:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.71%EV -10.97%E -4.27%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.43%EV -7.50%E -2.65%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -5.91%E -2.05%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 12:51
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -3.62%E -1.23%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 12:35
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -3.57%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 12:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.63%EV -11.66%E -4.57%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -10.11%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -5.25%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-04 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.09%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.38%0.5%2026-10-04 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%0.6%2026-10-04 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%0.6%2026-10-04 12:55