Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Azerbaijan v Lithuania

2026-10-04 13:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Azerbaijan (Local)

Predicción 41.19%2.43momio equitativo
EV -4.03%
Ventaja -1.73%
Kelly -3.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.89%41.20%41.24%42.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.252.252.3347.62%44.36%44.44%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lithuania (Visitante)

Predicción 28.29%3.54momio equitativo
EV -3.83%
Ventaja -1.13%
Kelly -1.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.37%28.29%28.20%29.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.283.303.4032.26%30.48%30.30%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.53%3.28momio equitativo
EV +1.04%
Ventaja +0.314%
Kelly +0.450%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.24%30.51%30.56%31.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.023.003.3134.72%33.07%33.33%30.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Azerbaijan (Local): 41.19%; Lithuania (Visitante): 28.29%; Empate: 30.53%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.28. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.31, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.04%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -4.03%E -1.73%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.11%EV -5.81%E -1.74%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.29%EV +1.04%E +0.314%K +0.450%G +0.005%3.2%2026-10-02 10:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.70%EV -5.26%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.06%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.24%EV +0.123%E +0.037%K +0.054%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 09:59
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-02 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:30
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:25
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:30
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 10:00
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 12:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.37%E -1.73%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 12:30
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.90%E -2.26%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-02 13:04
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.09%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 09:39
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.26%E -2.29%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 13:30
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 13:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.06%EV -10.21%E -4.68%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -5.24%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 13:10
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -9.38%E -4.27%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-02 12:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -11.44%E -5.32%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 09:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.39%EV -8.56%E -3.86%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.68%EV -6.09%E -1.83%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.94%EV -9.34%E -3.14%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 09:39
Suprabets🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.39%EV -6.50%E -2.86%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 28.74%EV -9.77%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.87%EV -9.34%E -3.14%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 11:07
Bovada🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.13%EV -5.68%E -2.48%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -9.49%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -9.95%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 11:13
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.04%EV -13.50%E -6.43%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -10.90%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -9.95%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-02 09:40
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.29%EV -10.87%E -3.72%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 11:29
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.29%EV -10.87%E -3.72%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 11:10
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-02 10:15
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.07%E -2.48%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-02 10:20
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -7.32%E -3.26%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.09%E -4.20%K -6.43%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-02 11:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.99%5.3%2026-10-02 13:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%5.7%2026-10-02 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%5.7%2026-10-02 13:30