La escuela de los momios

SC Braga v Real Betis

Inicio: 2026-04-08 16:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SC Braga (Local)

Predicción 39.16%2.55momio equitativo
EV +1.83%
Ventaja +0.703%
Kelly +1.14%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.21%39.11%39.15%40.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.442.402.6043.48%40.97%41.67%38.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Betis (Visitante)

Predicción 30.37%3.29momio equitativo
EV +0.205%
Ventaja +0.062%
Kelly +0.089%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.17%30.40%30.35%32.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.053.103.3035.71%32.77%32.26%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.47%3.28momio equitativo
EV -0.971%
Ventaja -0.299%
Kelly -0.432%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.58%30.49%30.50%31.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.103.103.2533.33%32.25%32.26%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV +1.83%E +0.703%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -2.49%E -0.780%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-08 16:15
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV +1.83%E +0.703%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -2.49%E -0.780%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-08 16:15
Svenska Spel2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV +1.83%E +0.703%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -2.49%E -0.780%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-08 16:15
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV +1.83%E +0.703%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -2.49%E -0.780%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-08 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -0.131%E -0.051%K -0.085%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -10.42%E -3.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-08 16:15
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -0.131%E -0.051%K -0.085%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -10.42%E -3.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-08 16:15
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -0.131%E -0.051%K -0.085%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -10.42%E -3.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-08 16:15
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -0.131%E -0.051%K -0.085%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -10.42%E -3.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-08 16:15
Bally Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -0.131%E -0.051%K -0.085%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -10.42%E -3.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-08 16:15
Coolbet2.54I 39.37%NM 37.86%EV -0.523%E -0.206%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.72%EV -4.96%E -1.58%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.42%EV -6.76%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-08 16:29
LowVig.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.21%EV -0.914%E -0.361%K -0.598%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.59%EV -7.08%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.21%EV -2.49%E -0.780%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-08 16:24
BetOnline.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.21%EV -0.914%E -0.361%K -0.598%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.59%EV -7.08%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.21%EV -2.49%E -0.780%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-08 16:25
BetRivers2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -2.09%E -0.836%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -11.94%E -4.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 16:15
Grosvenor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -2.09%E -0.836%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -11.94%E -4.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 16:15
TABtouch2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -2.09%E -0.836%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -11.94%E -4.12%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 16:15
PMU (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.21%EV -2.09%E -0.836%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.30%EV -12.55%E -4.36%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -7.07%E -2.32%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-08 16:15
Pinnacle2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -3.26%E -1.32%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.51%EV -3.74%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.32%EV -2.80%E -0.878%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-08 16:40
1xBet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.61%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.77%EV -1.01%E -0.310%K -0.447%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.62%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-08 16:35
NordicBet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.31%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.63%EV -0.971%E -0.299%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-08 16:25
Betsson2.45I 40.82%NM 39.31%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.63%EV -0.971%E -0.299%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-08 16:25
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 39.13%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%EV -4.35%E -1.38%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 16:05
BetUS2.45I 40.82%NM 38.94%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.77%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-08 15:55
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 15:50
Everygame2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 16:40
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -4.83%E -1.99%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -14.98%E -5.35%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-08 16:15
Virgin Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.34%EV -4.83%E -1.99%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -14.98%E -5.35%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-08 16:15
Codere (IT)2.41I 41.49%NM 39.33%EV -5.61%E -2.33%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.09%EV -4.35%E -1.38%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 16:25
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -2.83%E -0.885%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 16:25
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-08 16:10
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-08 16:24
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 16:25
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 15:45
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 16:05
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 16:05
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 16:05
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 16:29
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 16:30
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -10.42%E -3.53%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.02%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 16:40
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.57%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%EV +0.205%E +0.062%K +0.089%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.17%EV -2.49%E -0.780%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-08 16:35
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 16:30
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 16:10
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 16:05
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 16:04
888sport2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 16:05
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 16:05
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 16:05
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 16:29
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -7.18%E -3.03%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 16:10
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.35%E -1.38%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-08 16:21
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 16:10
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 16:10
Betclic (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.73%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.45%EV -3.74%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.81%EV -7.67%E -2.53%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 16:24
Caesars2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -2.83%E -0.885%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 16:05
NetBet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.16%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -7.39%E -2.42%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -8.59%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 16:30
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.92%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.90%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -5.54%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-08 16:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.56I 39.06%NM 39.00%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.20%0.2%2026-04-08 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%0.6%2026-04-08 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.06%0.6%2026-04-08 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.01%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96%0.9%2026-04-08 16:40
Smarkets2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%1.4%2026-04-08 16:40
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.83%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%2.9%2026-04-08 16:40