Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Porto v Nottingham Forest

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Porto (Local)

Prediction 47.19%2.12fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -3.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.66%47.15%47.09%50.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.992.002.0552.36%50.28%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nottingham Forest (Visit)

Prediction 23.24%4.30fair odd
EV +6.19%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.107%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.24%23.28%23.28%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.064.104.5726.32%24.62%24.39%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.58%3.38fair odd
EV -0.024%
Edge -0.007%
Kelly -0.010%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.59%29.57%29.63%30.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.193.203.3832.26%31.33%31.25%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Porto (Local): 47.19%; Nottingham Forest (Visit): 23.24%; Draw: 29.58%. For Nottingham Forest (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.04%EV -8.46%E -4.36%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.24%EV +6.19%E +1.35%K +1.73%G +0.107%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.72%EV -0.024%E -0.007%K -0.010%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.54%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.93%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.53%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-09 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.54%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.93%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.53%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-09 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.54%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.93%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.53%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-09 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.66%EV -3.74%E -1.83%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.88%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-09 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.88%EV -1.95%E -0.461%K -0.605%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV -0.911%E -0.272%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.88%EV -1.95%E -0.461%K -0.605%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV -0.911%E -0.272%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.65%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.44%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.93%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.63%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 18:09
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.02%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.02%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.61%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.29%EV -3.57%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.11%EV -1.80%E -0.542%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.67%EV -4.16%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-09 18:10
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.72%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.93%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-09 18:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.96%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 18:10
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:15
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Bally Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 18:55
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.49%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:10
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:53
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 18:45
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 18:55
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.26%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:20
Suprabets🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.06%EV -5.16%E -2.57%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.29%EV -4.46%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:44
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:05
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 18:09
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 18:10
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.31%EV -6.57%E -3.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:55
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:00
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:37
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:01
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:05
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.42%EV -7.52%E -3.83%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:10
Bovada🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.19%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 18:42
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.88%EV -6.57%E -3.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -10.54%E -2.74%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-09 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -10.54%E -2.74%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:05
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.97%1.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.54%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.68%2.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.61%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%3.0%2026-04-09 18:55