La escuela de los momios

Porto v Nottingham Forest

Inicio: 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Porto (Local)

Predicción 47.19%2.12momio equitativo
EV -3.27%
Ventaja -1.59%
Kelly -3.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.66%47.15%47.09%50.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.911.992.002.0552.36%50.28%50.00%48.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Nottingham Forest (Visitante)

Predicción 23.24%4.30momio equitativo
EV +6.19%
Ventaja +1.35%
Kelly +1.73%
Crecimiento +0.107%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.24%23.28%23.28%24.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.804.064.104.5726.32%24.62%24.39%21.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.58%3.38momio equitativo
EV -0.024%
Ventaja -0.007%
Kelly -0.010%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.59%29.57%29.63%30.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.193.203.3832.26%31.33%31.25%29.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 50.04%EV -8.46%E -4.36%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.24%EV +6.19%E +1.35%K +1.73%G +0.107%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.72%EV -0.024%E -0.007%K -0.010%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 47.54%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.93%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.53%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-09 18:45
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 47.54%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.93%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.53%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-09 18:45
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 47.54%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.93%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.53%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-09 18:45
Unibet (NL)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.66%EV -3.74%E -1.83%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.88%EV -1.25%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-09 18:45
LowVig.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.88%EV -1.95%E -0.461%K -0.605%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV -0.911%E -0.272%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
BetOnline.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 48.29%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.88%EV -1.95%E -0.461%K -0.605%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV -0.911%E -0.272%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Marathon Bet2.03I 49.26%NM 47.65%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.03%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Coolbet2.03I 49.26%NM 47.44%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.93%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.63%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 18:09
NordicBet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.02%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Betsson2.00I 50.00%NM 48.02%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -2.41%E -0.574%K -0.754%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Pinnacle2.03I 49.26%NM 47.61%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.29%EV -3.57%E -0.861%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.11%EV -1.80%E -0.542%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
ReBet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.67%EV -4.16%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-09 18:10
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.72%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.93%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-09 18:30
Codere (IT)2.03I 49.26%NM 46.96%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 18:10
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:15
Unibet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -2.39%E -0.724%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:15
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
TABtouch1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
Bally Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.71%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:45
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 18:55
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 47.49%EV -7.04%E -3.58%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:10
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:53
PMU (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 18:45
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 18:55
BetUS1.91I 52.36%NM 48.26%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -4.74%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:20
Suprabets2.01I 49.75%NM 47.06%EV -5.16%E -2.57%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.29%EV -4.46%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:44
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:05
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:04
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 18:09
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-09 18:10
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 47.31%EV -6.57%E -3.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:55
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:00
Caesars2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:37
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:01
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:05
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.06%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:30
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 47.42%EV -7.52%E -3.83%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.99%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:10
Bovada2.03I 49.26%NM 46.19%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 18:42
LiveScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 18:45
Virgin Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.38%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 18:45
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.88%EV -6.57%E -3.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -10.54%E -2.74%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -5.35%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-09 18:10
NetBet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -7.99%E -4.10%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -10.54%E -2.74%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:35
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.83%E -2.17%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:05
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -5.63%E -2.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.31%E -2.68%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.97%1.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.54%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.68%2.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.61%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%3.0%2026-04-09 18:55