La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v SC Freiburg

Inicio: 2026-04-16 16:45 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 1–3 SC Freiburg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 52.51%1.90momio equitativo
EV -1.80%
Ventaja -0.964%
Kelly -2.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.33%52.45%52.58%53.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.741.801.801.8757.47%55.43%55.56%53.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Freiburg (Visitante)

Predicción 22.35%4.47momio equitativo
EV -0.528%
Ventaja -0.119%
Kelly -0.153%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.26%22.41%22.20%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.704.154.204.4527.03%24.07%23.81%22.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.13%3.98momio equitativo
EV +0.540%
Ventaja +0.135%
Kelly +0.180%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.19%25.14%25.22%26.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.763.754.0028.57%26.57%26.67%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
LowVig.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 53.71%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.12%EV -2.32%E -0.530%K -0.687%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV +0.540%E +0.135%K +0.180%G +0.001%3.4%2026-04-16 16:40
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 53.71%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.12%EV -2.32%E -0.530%K -0.687%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV +0.540%E +0.135%K +0.180%G +0.001%3.4%2026-04-16 16:40
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -16.18%E -4.31%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV +0.540%E +0.135%K +0.180%G +0.001%6.3%2026-04-16 16:20
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -7.05%E -3.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -15.06%E -3.96%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV +0.540%E +0.135%K +0.180%G +0.001%7.8%2026-04-16 16:40
Pinnacle1.83I 54.64%NM 52.85%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.60%EV -4.33%E -1.01%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.55%EV -0.968%E -0.246%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-16 16:30
Coolbet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.64%EV -3.38%E -1.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52%EV -3.88%E -0.903%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -1.97%E -0.506%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 16:20
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%EV -3.88%E -0.903%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -1.97%E -0.506%K -0.681%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-16 16:40
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -2.85%E -1.54%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -17.29%E -4.67%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.97%E -0.506%K -0.681%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 16:20
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -6.53%E -3.67%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -1.97%E -0.506%K -0.681%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 16:40
Suprabets1.79I 55.87%NM 52.91%EV -6.00%E -3.35%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.54%EV -2.98%E -0.772%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 16:38
Unibet (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.20%EV -1.80%E -0.964%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.44%EV -2.76%E -0.635%K -0.825%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.36%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Svenska Spel1.87I 53.48%NM 52.20%EV -1.80%E -0.964%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.44%EV -2.76%E -0.635%K -0.825%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.36%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-16 16:40
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.20%EV -1.80%E -0.964%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.44%EV -2.76%E -0.635%K -0.825%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.36%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-16 16:40
ReBet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.74%EV -4.43%E -2.43%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -3.88%E -0.903%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-16 16:40
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -3.88%E -0.903%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-16 16:28
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 52.74%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 16:20
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 52.74%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 16:40
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%EV -7.05%E -3.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-16 16:39
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.71%EV -7.58%E -4.31%K -9.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -3.23%E -0.839%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 16:40
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.97%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.78%EV -0.528%E -0.119%K -0.153%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.24%EV -3.48%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 16:40
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.30%EV -2.85%E -1.54%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.24%EV -2.76%E -0.635%K -0.825%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 52.03%EV -2.85%E -1.54%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.65%EV -5.00%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-16 16:30
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 52.03%EV -2.85%E -1.54%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.65%EV -5.00%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-16 16:30
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.11%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%EV -1.65%E -0.374%K -0.484%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.16%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 16:40
Bet Right1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -2.85%E -1.54%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -17.29%E -4.67%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 16:20
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 53.41%EV -8.63%E -4.96%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 16:40
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -8.10%E -4.63%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-16 16:40
Codere (IT)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.85%EV -3.38%E -1.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-16 16:20
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -3.21%E -0.741%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 16:40
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -3.21%E -0.741%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 16:40
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.10%E -4.63%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 16:40
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -8.10%E -4.63%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 16:40
PlayUp1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -13.94%E -3.62%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 16:30
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -8.10%E -4.63%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -15.06%E -3.96%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -5.74%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-16 16:14
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -4.95%E -2.74%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -4.95%E -2.74%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 16:40
Casumo1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -4.95%E -2.74%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 16:40
Bally Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -4.95%E -2.74%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 16:40
betPARX1.81I 55.25%NM 52.08%EV -4.95%E -2.74%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:40
TABtouch1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 16:40
BetRivers1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -4.95%E -2.74%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -8.35%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 16:15
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -8.10%E -4.63%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -1.65%E -0.374%K -0.484%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 16:39
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -12.82%E -3.29%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 16:30
PMU (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -6.53%E -3.67%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.26%E -2.26%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 52.46%EV -8.63%E -4.96%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.54%EV -9.47%E -2.34%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.01%EV -8.26%E -2.26%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-16 16:40
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -8.35%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 16:15
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 16:15
888sport1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 16:15
William Hill1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 16:20
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 16:15
888sport (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -3.90%E -2.13%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.59%E -2.65%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 16:15
NetBet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.27%EV -7.05%E -3.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 16:40
Virgin Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 51.55%EV -7.05%E -3.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.10%EV -11.70%E -2.96%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-16 16:40
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 51.55%EV -7.05%E -3.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.10%EV -11.70%E -2.96%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.51%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-16 16:40
Caesars1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -6.12%E -1.46%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 16:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.56%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30%0.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.56%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.30%0.4%2026-04-16 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.11%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-04-16 16:40
Matchbook1.86I 53.76%NM 53.24%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-04-16 16:29
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 53.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-04-16 16:40
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 53.38%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-04-16 16:40