L’École des cotes

Bologna v Aston Villa

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Bologna (Local)

Prévision 23.75%4.21cote équitable
EV +0.956%
Avantage +0.225%
Kelly +0.294%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 4.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.71%23.66%23.81%25.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.653.974.004.2527.40%25.22%25.00%23.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Aston Villa (Visiteur)

Prévision 47.77%2.09cote équitable
EV -2.08%
Avantage -1.02%
Kelly -1.98%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.02%47.88%47.72%49.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.871.971.972.0553.48%50.74%50.76%48.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.48%3.51cote équitable
EV -1.17%
Avantage -0.338%
Kelly -0.475%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.47

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.55%28.47%28.46%29.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.323.303.4731.25%30.16%30.30%28.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.71%EV +0.956%E +0.225%K +0.294%G +0.003%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.49%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.81%EV -1.17%E -0.338%K -0.475%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 18:55
LowVig.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.71%EV +0.956%E +0.225%K +0.294%G +0.003%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.49%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.81%EV -1.17%E -0.338%K -0.475%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 18:55
1xBet4.18I 23.92%NM 23.21%EV -0.707%E -0.169%K -0.222%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.75%EV -4.95%E -2.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.04%EV -1.46%E -0.421%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Marathon Bet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.86%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.71%EV -2.08%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.43%EV -2.03%E -0.589%K -0.831%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Svenska Spel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-09 18:55
ATG (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Betclic (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.01%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:28
SportsBet4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:40
FanDuel4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:40
NordicBet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.98%EV -3.51%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 18:15
Betsson4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.98%EV -3.51%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 18:15
Pinnacle4.05I 24.69%NM 23.89%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.66%EV -3.04%E -1.50%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.45%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Coolbet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.78%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.21%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.01%EV -5.44%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 18:20
Bovada4.05I 24.69%NM 23.12%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.51%EV -7.81%E -4.05%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:42
Unibet (NL)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.39%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:55
ReBet4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.56%EV -3.51%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.42%EV -3.74%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:20
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.89%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-09 18:20
Codere (IT)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 18:30
DraftKings4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 18:15
Fanatics4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:19
Coral4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:35
Unibet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.27%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 18:35
BetMGM4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 18:35
Everygame4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:55
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 18:09
Caesars4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-09 18:42
BetUS4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Paddy Power4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:55
NetBet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -10.68%E -5.71%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-09 18:40
Suprabets3.99I 25.06%NM 23.79%EV -5.22%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.95%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.26%EV -4.31%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Casumo3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
betPARX3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Bally Bet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
BetRivers3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 18:20
Grosvenor3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.70%EV -6.38%E -3.26%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
TABtouch3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.70%EV -6.38%E -3.26%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Victor3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:53
Ladbrokes (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 18:35
Neds3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 18:35
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
888sport (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
888sport3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
Mr Green (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
PMU (FR)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.88%EV -7.81%E -4.05%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:55
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%EV -8.55%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.30%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:15
Fliff3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -8.55%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -6.38%E -3.26%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 18:20
TAB3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-09 18:15
BoyleSports3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:19
Winamax (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -7.34%E -3.78%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:20
LiveScore Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.35%EV -8.29%E -4.32%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Virgin Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.35%EV -8.29%E -4.32%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Betr (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -12.11%E -3.27%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Right3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -13.30%E -3.64%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.42%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.91%0.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Smarkets4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Matchbook4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.08%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%4.0%2026-04-09 18:45