La escuela de los momios

Bologna v Aston Villa

Inicio: 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Bologna (Local)

Predicción 23.75%4.21momio equitativo
EV +0.956%
Ventaja +0.225%
Kelly +0.294%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.71%23.66%23.81%25.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.653.974.004.2527.40%25.22%25.00%23.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Aston Villa (Visitante)

Predicción 47.77%2.09momio equitativo
EV -2.08%
Ventaja -1.02%
Kelly -1.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.02%47.88%47.72%49.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.871.971.972.0553.48%50.74%50.76%48.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.48%3.51momio equitativo
EV -1.17%
Ventaja -0.338%
Kelly -0.475%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.55%28.47%28.46%29.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.323.303.4731.25%30.16%30.30%28.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.71%EV +0.956%E +0.225%K +0.294%G +0.003%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.49%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.81%EV -1.17%E -0.338%K -0.475%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 18:55
LowVig.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.71%EV +0.956%E +0.225%K +0.294%G +0.003%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.49%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.81%EV -1.17%E -0.338%K -0.475%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 18:55
1xBet4.18I 23.92%NM 23.21%EV -0.707%E -0.169%K -0.222%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.75%EV -4.95%E -2.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.04%EV -1.46%E -0.421%K -0.592%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Marathon Bet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.86%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.71%EV -2.08%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.43%EV -2.03%E -0.589%K -0.831%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Svenska Spel4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-09 18:55
ATG (SE)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Betclic (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.01%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:28
SportsBet4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 18:40
FanDuel4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -2.61%E -0.636%K -0.841%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:40
NordicBet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.98%EV -3.51%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 18:15
Betsson4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.98%EV -3.51%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%EV -1.74%E -0.505%K -0.711%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-09 18:15
Pinnacle4.05I 24.69%NM 23.89%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.66%EV -3.04%E -1.50%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.45%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Coolbet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.78%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.21%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.01%EV -5.44%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-09 18:20
Bovada4.05I 24.69%NM 23.12%EV -3.80%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.51%EV -7.81%E -4.05%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:42
Unibet (NL)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.39%EV -2.56%E -1.25%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 18:55
ReBet4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.56%EV -3.51%E -1.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.42%EV -3.74%E -1.11%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:20
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.94%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.89%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-09 18:20
Codere (IT)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 18:30
DraftKings4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 18:15
Fanatics4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:19
Coral4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:35
Unibet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.27%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 18:35
BetMGM4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 18:35
Everygame4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Sky Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:55
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 18:09
Caesars4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-09 18:42
BetUS4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:55
Paddy Power4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:55
NetBet (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -4.98%E -1.25%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -10.68%E -5.71%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-09 18:40
Suprabets3.99I 25.06%NM 23.79%EV -5.22%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.95%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.26%EV -4.31%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Casumo3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
betPARX3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Bally Bet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.17%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 18:55
BetRivers3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -5.90%E -3.00%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 18:20
Grosvenor3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.70%EV -6.38%E -3.26%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
TABtouch3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.70%EV -6.38%E -3.26%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Victor3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:53
Ladbrokes (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 18:35
Neds3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 18:35
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
888sport (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
888sport3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
Mr Green (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:30
PMU (FR)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -7.36%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.88%EV -7.81%E -4.05%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 18:55
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%EV -8.55%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.30%EV -5.43%E -2.74%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:15
Fliff3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -8.55%E -2.22%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.78%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -6.38%E -3.26%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 18:20
TAB3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -6.86%E -3.52%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-09 18:15
BoyleSports3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.73%E -2.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -8.77%E -4.59%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -7.44%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:19
Winamax (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.70%EV -7.34%E -3.78%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -4.59%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:20
LiveScore Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.35%EV -8.29%E -4.32%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Virgin Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.92%E -2.91%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.35%EV -8.29%E -4.32%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Betr (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -12.11%E -3.27%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.01%E -1.82%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Right3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -13.30%E -3.64%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -4.47%E -2.23%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.86%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.42%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.91%0.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Smarkets4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Matchbook4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.08%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%4.0%2026-04-09 18:45