Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bologna v AS Roma

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bologna (Local)

Prediction 30.89%3.24fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.363%
Kelly -0.528%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.83%30.97%30.88%32.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.053.083.2035.09%32.80%32.47%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AS Roma (Visit)

Prediction 37.59%2.66fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -0.939%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.19%37.59%37.57%38.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.512.502.6241.67%39.78%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.53%3.17fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.732%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%31.44%31.55%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.983.003.1035.71%33.53%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bologna (Local): 30.89%; AS Roma (Visit): 37.59%; Draw: 31.53%. For Bologna (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.528%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV -2.27%E -0.874%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-12 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.528%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV -2.27%E -0.874%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-12 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.528%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV -2.27%E -0.874%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-12 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.528%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.33%EV -2.27%E -0.874%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.35%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-12 17:10
BetUS🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.83%EV -1.16%E -0.363%K -0.528%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.34%EV -6.41%E -2.57%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 17:20
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.53%EV -2.09%E -0.659%K -0.963%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.95%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.52%EV -3.22%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 17:40
Coolbet🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -2.40%E -0.759%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.68%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.92%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 08:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%EV -2.71%E -0.859%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.18%EV -4.90%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.27%E -0.732%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-12 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.66%EV -2.71%E -0.859%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.18%EV -4.90%E -1.94%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -2.27%E -0.732%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-12 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.62%EV -3.02%E -0.960%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.55%EV -3.78%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -4.79%E -1.59%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 17:20
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.09%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.79%EV -1.52%E -0.580%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 17:35
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.09%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.79%EV -1.52%E -0.580%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 17:35
ReBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -3.40%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.47%EV -3.53%E -1.15%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 16:50
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.42%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.80%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 16:40
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.42%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.80%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 17:15
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:10
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:10
Bally Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:10
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.61%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 17:10
Everygame🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 17:40
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 17:35
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 17:35
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.96%EV -7.16%E -2.90%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 17:39
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:10
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:10
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 17:35
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.25%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:35
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.49%EV -4.87%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -1.52%E -0.580%K -0.939%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.49%EV -2.90%E -0.942%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-12 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.13%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.23%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.64%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 17:18
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -8.66%E -3.56%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -11.73%E -4.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -5.80%E -1.90%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -8.66%E -3.56%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -11.73%E -4.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 17:10
Suprabets🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.25%EV -6.41%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.28%EV -4.53%E -1.78%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.46%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 17:36
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -2.27%E -0.732%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:40
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:40
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:40
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 16:40
TAB🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:20
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -2.27%E -0.732%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.95%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.59%EV -7.16%E -2.90%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-12 17:20
Caesars🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-12 17:35
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-12 17:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:20
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.34%E -2.45%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-12 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -8.88%E -3.01%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -2.27%E -0.732%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-12 16:50
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -2.27%E -0.874%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 16:40
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -2.27%E -0.732%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 17:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -2.27%E -0.732%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 16:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.76%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -3.85%E -1.26%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-12 16:50
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:05
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 17:05
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -10.43%E -3.60%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -7.91%E -3.23%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-12 17:40
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -11.97%E -4.20%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.42%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%0.2%2026-03-12 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%0.5%2026-03-12 17:35
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 30.15%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-03-12 17:35
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.83%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.11%3.0%2026-03-12 17:40