The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille

2026-11-05 20:00 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 66.31%1.51fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -6.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.18%66.27%66.37%68.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4673.53%71.43%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marseille (Visit)

Prediction 14.54%6.88fair odd
EV +3.25%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.533%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 7.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.37%14.63%14.43%16.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.346.457.1018.52%15.78%15.50%14.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.14%5.22fair odd
EV +0.503%
Edge +0.096%
Kelly +0.118%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.99%19.10%19.19%20.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.814.905.2522.73%20.78%20.41%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 66.31%; Marseille (Visit): 14.54%; Draw: 19.14%. For Marseille (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.88. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.10, producing a positive expected value of +3.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.10%EV -5.17%E -3.62%K -12.03%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.51%EV +3.25%E +0.458%K +0.533%G +0.017%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.38%EV -5.24%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-23 19:49
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.99%EV -5.83%E -4.11%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV +1.80%E +0.257%K +0.300%G +0.005%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -6.20%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 19:50
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +1.80%E +0.257%K +0.300%G +0.005%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 19:50
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.98%EV -7.82%E -5.63%K -20.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV +1.80%E +0.257%K +0.300%G +0.005%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -2.37%E -0.464%K -0.578%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 19:50
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -9.15%E -6.68%K -24.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +1.80%E +0.257%K +0.300%G +0.005%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -2.37%E -0.464%K -0.578%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 19:50
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.41%EV -3.18%E -2.18%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.79I 14.73%NM 14.28%EV -1.25%E -0.185%K -0.217%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.31%EV -3.90%E -0.777%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-23 19:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -1.84%E -0.272%K -0.319%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 19:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.41%EV -4.51%E -3.13%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.27%EV -2.56%E -0.383%K -0.450%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.32%EV -5.24%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-23 19:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.47%E -0.842%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV +0.503%E +0.096%K +0.118%G +0.001%5.9%2026-10-23 19:50
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -5.47%E -0.842%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 19:50
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -5.47%E -0.842%K -0.995%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 19:50
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -5.47%E -0.842%K -0.995%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 19:50
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -9.81%E -7.22%K -27.26%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.47%E -0.842%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -4.28%E -0.857%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 19:49
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.66%EV -5.83%E -4.11%K -13.89%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.67%EV -6.20%E -0.961%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.67%EV -2.94%E -0.580%K -0.723%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 19:50
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.66%EV -5.83%E -4.11%K -13.89%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.67%EV -6.20%E -0.961%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.67%EV -2.94%E -0.580%K -0.723%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 19:50
picklebet_au🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -12.74%E -2.12%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 19:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -12.74%E -2.12%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 19:49
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -12.74%E -2.12%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 19:50
ReBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -12.74%E -2.12%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 19:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -12.74%E -2.12%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 19:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -12.74%E -2.12%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 19:50
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -9.81%E -7.22%K -27.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -12.74%E -2.12%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.32%EV -6.50%E -4.61%K -15.85%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.88%EV -15.65%E -2.70%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -6.20%E -1.26%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 19:50
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.01%EV -7.16%E -5.11%K -17.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -16.38%E -2.85%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -9.07%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 00:20
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.94%EV -8.49%E -6.15%K -22.33%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.58%EV -16.38%E -2.85%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.48%EV -11.94%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 19:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.44%EV -9.15%E -6.68%K -24.73%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.49%EV -17.11%E -3.00%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.07%EV -15.77%E -3.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-23 19:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.18%EV -9.15%E -6.68%K -24.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.28%EV -21.47%E -3.98%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.54%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-23 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.65%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.29%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%4.9%2026-10-23 19:50
Smarkets◎1.35I 74.07%NM 63.32%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.83%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.85%17.0%2026-10-23 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 43.99%1.18I 84.75%NM 45.48%5.10I 19.61%NM 10.52%86.3%2026-10-23 22:16
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 43.99%1.18I 84.75%NM 45.48%5.10I 19.61%NM 10.52%86.3%2026-10-23 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 43.99%1.18I 84.75%NM 45.48%5.10I 19.61%NM 10.52%86.3%2026-10-23 22:16