L’École des cotes

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-07 19:00 UTC

Score final : Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Aston Villa (Local)

Prévision 54.44%1.84cote équitable
EV -2.01%
Avantage -1.11%
Kelly -2.51%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.75%54.52%54.43%55.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.731.731.8059.88%57.69%57.80%55.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Nottingham Forest (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.41%4.90cote équitable
EV +2.04%
Avantage +0.407%
Kelly +0.509%
Croissance +0.010%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.27%20.34%20.40%21.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.254.654.605.0023.53%21.52%21.74%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.15%3.98cote équitable
EV +0.102%
Avantage +0.026%
Kelly +0.034%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.98

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.23%25.14%25.17%25.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.553.753.753.9828.17%26.64%26.67%25.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 55.05%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.27%EV +2.04%E +0.407%K +0.509%G +0.010%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.69%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-07 18:50
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.05%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.27%EV +2.04%E +0.407%K +0.509%G +0.010%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.69%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-07 18:50
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.78%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.90%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-07 18:55
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.78%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.90%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-07 18:54
Svenska Spel1.78I 56.18%NM 54.78%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.90%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Unibet (NL)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.92%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-07 18:54
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.83%EV -0.209%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.74%EV -1.41%E -0.359%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-07 18:55
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.59%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.92%EV -1.03%E -0.211%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.49%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-07 18:55
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.59%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.92%EV -1.03%E -0.211%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.49%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-07 18:55
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.04%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.05%E -0.426%K -0.538%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 18:35
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -2.05%E -0.426%K -0.538%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:35
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 54.89%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.57%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.55%EV +0.102%E +0.026%K +0.034%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-07 18:54
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 54.39%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-07 18:50
Unibet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -1.91%E -0.490%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:35
Unibet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Bally Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
betPARX1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 54.64%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV -4.09%E -0.869%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -1.91%E -0.490%K -0.659%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-07 18:25
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -7.99%E -4.73%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -4.09%E -0.869%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 18:10
PMU (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -4.09%E -0.869%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 18:55
BetUS1.72I 58.14%NM 54.69%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.23%EV -5.11%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 18:50
Pinnacle1.79I 55.87%NM 53.86%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.78%EV -5.31%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-07 18:50
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 53.86%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 18:50
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 18:50
Codere (IT)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 18:50
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:49
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:50
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 18:55
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 18:53
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.57%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 18:10
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:48
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
NetBet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 54.82%EV -7.99%E -4.73%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-07 07:22
Suprabets1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 18:47
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 18:50
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 18:10
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 16:38
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 18:50
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-07 18:55
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -10.71%E -3.02%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -10.71%E -3.02%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 54.56%EV -9.08%E -5.44%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.48%EV -9.19%E -2.06%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -8.20%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.30%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -10.21%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -1.91%E -0.490%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.21%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 18:50
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -10.21%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 18:50
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -2.01%E -1.11%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -11.64%E -2.69%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 18:50
Bet Right1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -13.27%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.44%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22%0.4%2026-05-07 18:55
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 54.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-05-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-05-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-05-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-05-07 18:55
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.43%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-05-07 18:55