La escuela de los momios

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Inicio: 2026-05-07 19:00 UTC

Final: Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Aston Villa (Local)

Predicción 54.44%1.84momio equitativo
EV -2.01%
Ventaja -1.11%
Kelly -2.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.75%54.52%54.43%55.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.731.731.8059.88%57.69%57.80%55.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Nottingham Forest (Visitante)

Predicción 20.41%4.90momio equitativo
EV +2.04%
Ventaja +0.407%
Kelly +0.509%
Crecimiento +0.010%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.27%20.34%20.40%21.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.254.654.605.0023.53%21.52%21.74%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.15%3.98momio equitativo
EV +0.102%
Ventaja +0.026%
Kelly +0.034%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.23%25.14%25.17%25.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.553.753.753.9828.17%26.64%26.67%25.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 55.05%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.27%EV +2.04%E +0.407%K +0.509%G +0.010%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.69%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-07 18:50
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.05%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.27%EV +2.04%E +0.407%K +0.509%G +0.010%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.69%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-07 18:50
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.78%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.90%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-07 18:55
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.78%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.90%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-07 18:54
Svenska Spel1.78I 56.18%NM 54.78%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.90%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Unibet (NL)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.92%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -0.005%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-07 18:54
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.83%EV -0.209%E -0.043%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.74%EV -1.41%E -0.359%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-07 18:55
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.59%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.92%EV -1.03%E -0.211%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.49%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-07 18:55
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.59%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.92%EV -1.03%E -0.211%K -0.266%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.49%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-07 18:55
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.04%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.05%E -0.426%K -0.538%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 18:35
BetRivers1.68I 59.52%NM 55.80%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -2.05%E -0.426%K -0.538%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:35
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 54.89%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.57%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.55%EV +0.102%E +0.026%K +0.034%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-07 18:54
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 54.39%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.27%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-07 18:50
Unibet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -1.91%E -0.490%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:35
Unibet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Bally Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
betPARX1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 18:55
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 54.64%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -3.07%E -0.646%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49%EV -3.09%E -1.74%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV -4.09%E -0.869%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -1.91%E -0.490%K -0.659%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-07 18:25
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -7.99%E -4.73%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -4.09%E -0.869%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 18:10
PMU (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -4.09%E -0.869%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 18:55
BetUS1.72I 58.14%NM 54.69%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.23%EV -5.11%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 18:50
Pinnacle1.79I 55.87%NM 53.86%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.78%EV -5.31%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-07 18:50
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 53.86%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 18:50
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 18:50
Codere (IT)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 18:50
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:49
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.46%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:50
Everygame1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 18:55
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 54.10%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 18:53
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.57%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 18:10
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:48
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.24%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
NetBet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 54.82%EV -7.99%E -4.73%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.13%E -1.33%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-07 07:22
Suprabets1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -3.64%E -2.06%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 18:47
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.82%E -3.36%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 18:50
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -4.43%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 18:10
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 16:38
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 18:50
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.45%E -4.38%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.46%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-07 18:55
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -10.71%E -3.02%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -8.54%E -5.08%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -8.17%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -10.71%E -3.02%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 54.56%EV -9.08%E -5.44%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.48%EV -9.19%E -2.06%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -8.20%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.30%EV -5.27%E -3.03%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -10.21%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -1.91%E -0.490%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.42%EV -6.36%E -3.70%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -10.21%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -3.17%E -0.823%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 18:50
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -10.21%E -2.32%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 18:50
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -2.01%E -1.11%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -11.64%E -2.69%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.68%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 18:50
Bet Right1.75I 57.14%NM 53.06%EV -4.73%E -2.70%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -13.27%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.44%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22%0.4%2026-05-07 18:55
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 54.58%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-05-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-05-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-05-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-05-07 18:55
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.43%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-05-07 18:55