Language:English
Sparta Prague v AZ Alkmaar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sparta Prague (Local)
Prediction 39.08%2.56fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.25%39.00%39.04%41.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.4744.44%41.93%41.67%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AZ Alkmaar (Visit)
Prediction 34.78%2.87fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.931%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.32%34.80%34.82%35.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.692.702.8038.46%37.12%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.22%26.20%26.14%27.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.603.7230.30%28.05%27.78%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sparta Prague (Local): 39.08%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 34.78%; Draw: 26.13%. For AZ Alkmaar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -2.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.13%EV -3.47%E -1.40%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.89%EV -3.65%E -1.32%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -2.78%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.88%EV -3.47%E -1.40%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.17%EV -5.04%E -1.85%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -3.31%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.88%EV -3.47%E -1.40%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.17%EV -5.04%E -1.85%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -3.31%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.62%EV -3.86%E -1.57%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.06%EV -5.74%E -2.12%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.32%EV -5.66%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.17%EV -4.25%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.90%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.94%EV -3.31%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 19:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.03%EV -4.25%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.77%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.20%EV -4.61%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-19 18:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -4.25%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-19 18:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.25%EV -4.64%E -1.90%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.31%EV -5.39%E -1.98%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.51%EV -5.03%E -2.07%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.54%EV -3.30%E -1.19%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -3.31%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 19:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.23%EV -5.03%E -2.07%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.66%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.61%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.42%E -2.24%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.75%EV -5.04%E -1.85%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.06%EV -4.87%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-19 19:46 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.49%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -4.61%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-19 19:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -3.31%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-19 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -6.20%E -2.58%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -6.98%E -2.93%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.38%EV -5.39%E -1.98%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 19:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -6.98%E -2.93%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.38%EV -5.39%E -1.98%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.98%E -2.93%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -8.87%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-19 19:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -6.98%E -2.93%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -8.87%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-19 19:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -6.98%E -2.93%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -8.87%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -6.98%E -2.93%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -8.87%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.43%EV -7.37%E -3.11%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.92%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 19:36 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.14%EV -7.37%E -3.11%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.03%EV -7.37%E -3.11%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 19:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.23%EV -8.16%E -3.47%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -7.23%E -2.04%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-19 19:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -8.16%E -3.47%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -8.87%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-19 19:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -8.16%E -3.47%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%EV -8.94%E -3.84%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-19 19:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%EV -8.94%E -3.84%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -8.53%E -2.44%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -10.11%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.32%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -4.61%E -1.26%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-19 19:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -10.11%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.15%E -3.28%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-19 19:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.11%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.84%E -2.85%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-19 19:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.20%EV -10.11%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -9.84%E -2.85%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-19 19:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -10.11%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -13.76%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -12.06%E -5.36%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -2.61%E -0.931%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.31%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-19 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.93% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 0.3% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.93% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23% | 0.3% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.12% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.74% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15% | 0.7% | 2026-03-19 19:55 |