The School of Odds
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Rayo Vallecano v AEK Athens

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Prediction 52.61%1.90fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.40%52.56%52.53%54.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.801.8457.80%56.10%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AEK Athens (Visit)

Prediction 19.74%5.07fair odd
EV +5.23%
Edge +0.981%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 5.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.82%19.72%19.83%21.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.774.805.3322.73%20.95%20.83%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.64%3.62fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%27.72%27.64%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.403.5332.26%29.67%29.41%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano (Local): 52.61%; AEK Athens (Visit): 19.74%; Draw: 27.64%. For AEK Athens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.58%EV -8.45%E -4.86%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.82%EV +5.23%E +0.981%K +1.21%G +0.063%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.61%EV -4.91%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 16:35
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.38%EV -4.77%E -2.64%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.25%EV -0.890%E -0.177%K -0.221%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.37%EV -2.42%E -0.685%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 16:21
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.08%EV -4.24%E -2.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV -1.28%E -0.257%K -0.321%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.60%EV -3.25%E -0.928%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 16:30
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.93%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -1.28%E -0.257%K -0.321%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 16:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.47%EV -3.19%E -1.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV -3.26%E -0.665%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -4.08%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.47%EV -3.19%E -1.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV -3.26%E -0.665%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -4.08%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-09 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.15%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.52%EV -3.26%E -0.665%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.33%EV -3.25%E -0.928%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 16:21
Suprabets🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.72%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -3.26%E -0.665%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 16:26
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -8.45%E -4.86%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -3.26%E -0.665%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.78%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 16:30
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.44%EV -3.72%E -2.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.99%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.57%EV -3.80%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-09 16:35
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.93%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -3.25%E -0.928%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.93%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -3.25%E -0.928%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 16:20
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 16:35
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.00%EV -6.35%E -3.57%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -8.78%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 16:35
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -8.78%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -8.78%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 16:35
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.93%E -4.53%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.54%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 16:35
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.93%E -4.53%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.54%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.93%E -4.53%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.54%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -7.93%E -4.53%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -5.23%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.54%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 16:35
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -6.22%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 16:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -6.22%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 16:35
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.93%E -4.53%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -6.22%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 16:35
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.67%EV -7.93%E -4.53%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -6.22%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.78%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 16:30
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.24%E -2.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -7.21%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 16:20
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.24%E -2.33%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -7.21%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 16:21
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.86%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -7.21%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.78%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.71%EV -6.87%E -3.88%K -8.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -7.21%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.28%EV -8.98%E -5.19%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.61%EV -7.21%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.28%EV -8.98%E -5.19%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.61%EV -7.21%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.06%EV -8.98%E -5.19%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -7.21%E -1.53%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.62%EV -7.40%E -4.20%K -9.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -9.18%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 16:40
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -5.30%E -2.94%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.78%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 16:40
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -6.87%E -3.88%K -8.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 16:35
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -6.87%E -3.88%K -8.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -10.16%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:35
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.48%EV -8.98%E -5.19%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -11.16%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.31%E -4.61%K -6.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-09 16:31
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.45%EV -4.77%E -2.64%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -13.13%E -2.98%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.20%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.03%0.5%2026-04-09 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.20%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.03%0.5%2026-04-09 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.99%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.70%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.31%0.9%2026-04-09 16:40