The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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PFC CSKA Sofia v AS Monaco

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 16:45 UTC

Final: PFC CSKA Sofia 1–2 AS Monaco

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PFC CSKA Sofia (Local)

Prediction 15.60%6.41fair odd
EV +0.649%
Edge +0.101%
Kelly +0.119%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.02%15.65%15.58%16.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.915.906.4518.87%16.92%16.95%15.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AS Monaco (Visit)

Prediction 63.98%1.56fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -2.69%
Kelly -8.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.45%63.96%64.01%64.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.461.451.5071.94%68.66%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.42%4.90fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.528%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.72%20.39%20.42%21.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.504.504.8024.39%22.21%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PFC CSKA Sofia (Local): 15.60%; AS Monaco (Visit): 63.98%; Draw: 20.42%. For PFC CSKA Sofia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.649%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯6.45I 15.50%NM 15.02%EV +0.649%E +0.101%K +0.119%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.58%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV -3.03%E -0.637%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-15 16:35
1xBet🎯6.27I 15.95%NM 15.14%EV -2.16%E -0.345%K -0.410%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -5.95%E -4.05%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.28%EV -4.46%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 16:40
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.28%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV -3.03%E -0.637%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-15 16:19
BetOnline.ag🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.07%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.07%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -4.67%E -3.13%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Unibet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -4.67%E -3.13%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Pinnacle🎯6.19I 16.16%NM 15.48%EV -3.41%E -0.551%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.87%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.65%EV -5.27%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 16:40
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.88%EV -4.67%E -3.13%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:35
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -2.01%E -0.418%K -0.528%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:39
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.09%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.09%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 16:40
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.35%EV -6.59%E -4.51%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 16:30
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -3.03%E -0.637%K -0.807%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 16:40
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%EV -6.59%E -4.51%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 15:40
LeoVegas🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 16:40
FanDuel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -8.51%E -5.95%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:30
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 16:38
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 16:38
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -7.93%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.92%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.11%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:30
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -7.93%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.92%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.11%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.46%EV -7.93%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.80%EV -8.51%E -5.95%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 16:40
Neds🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -9.49%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -9.49%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 16:40
William Hill🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -9.49%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.26%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-15 16:34
Bovada🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -5.95%E -4.05%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.09%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:40
Betway🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:30
BetMGM🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-15 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:35
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.60%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.60%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 16:20
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.71%EV -9.15%E -6.44%K -21.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.38%EV -8.51%E -5.95%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-15 16:34
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-15 16:29
Sky Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-15 16:39
Unibet (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.38%EV -17.30%E -3.26%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 62.45%EV -11.07%E -7.96%K -28.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.17%EV -16.30%E -3.98%K -5.26%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-15 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.47%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%0.5%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-10-15 16:40