Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

PFC CSKA Sofia v AS Monaco

Início: 2026-10-15 16:45 UTC

Final: PFC CSKA Sofia 1–2 AS Monaco

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

39 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

PFC CSKA Sofia (Local)

Previsão 15.60%6.41odd justa
EV +0.649%
Vantagem +0.101%
Kelly +0.119%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.02%15.65%15.58%16.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.305.915.906.4518.87%16.92%16.95%15.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

AS Monaco (Visitante)

Previsão 63.98%1.56odd justa
EV -4.03%
Vantagem -2.69%
Kelly -8.06%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
62.45%63.96%64.01%64.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.391.461.451.5071.94%68.66%68.97%66.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 20.42%4.90odd justa
EV -2.01%
Vantagem -0.418%
Kelly -0.528%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.72%20.39%20.42%21.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.104.504.504.8024.39%22.21%22.22%20.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: PFC CSKA Sofia (Local): 15.60%; AS Monaco (Visitante): 63.98%; Empate: 20.42%. Para PFC CSKA Sofia (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.41. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.45, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.649%.

Odds das casas de apostas (39 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Marathon Bet🎯6.45I 15.50%NM 15.02%EV +0.649%E +0.101%K +0.119%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.58%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV -3.03%E -0.637%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-15 16:35
1xBet🎯6.27I 15.95%NM 15.14%EV -2.16%E -0.345%K -0.410%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -5.95%E -4.05%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.28%EV -4.46%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 16:40
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.28%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV -3.03%E -0.637%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-15 16:19
BetOnline.ag🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.07%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.07%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -4.67%E -3.13%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Unibet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -2.47%E -0.396%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.41%EV -4.67%E -3.13%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Pinnacle🎯6.19I 16.16%NM 15.48%EV -3.41%E -0.551%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.87%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.65%EV -5.27%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 16:40
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.88%EV -4.67%E -3.13%K -9.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:35
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -2.01%E -0.418%K -0.528%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:39
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.09%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.09%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 16:40
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.35%EV -6.59%E -4.51%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 16:30
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -3.03%E -0.637%K -0.807%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 16:40
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%EV -6.59%E -4.51%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 15:40
LeoVegas🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.67%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 16:40
FanDuel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -8.51%E -5.95%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -4.05%E -0.861%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:30
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 16:38
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.37%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 16:38
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -7.93%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.92%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.11%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:30
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -7.93%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.92%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -7.11%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.46%EV -7.93%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.80%EV -8.51%E -5.95%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 16:40
Neds🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -9.49%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -9.49%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 16:40
William Hill🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -9.49%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.26%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-15 16:34
Bovada🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.48%EV -5.95%E -4.05%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -6.09%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:40
Betway🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:30
BetMGM🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-15 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:35
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -11.60%E -2.68%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.60%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.60%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 16:20
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.71%EV -9.15%E -6.44%K -21.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -10.27%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -7.87%E -5.46%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.38%EV -8.51%E -5.95%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -8.13%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-15 16:34
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -10.17%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-15 16:29
Sky Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -14.26%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-15 16:39
Unibet (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.38%EV -17.30%E -3.26%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 62.45%EV -11.07%E -7.96%K -28.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.17%EV -16.30%E -3.98%K -5.26%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-15 16:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.47%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%0.5%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.61%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.18%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-10-15 16:40