The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lech Poznań v Shakhtar Donetsk

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prediction 36.66%2.73fair odd
EV +0.072%
Edge +0.026%
Kelly +0.042%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.81%36.60%36.68%37.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.572.552.7340.00%38.97%39.22%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shakhtar Donetsk (Visit)

Prediction 35.26%2.84fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.66%35.34%35.24%37.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.622.7740.00%37.98%38.17%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.08%3.56fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.487%
Kelly -0.682%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.98%28.06%28.08%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.323.333.5032.26%30.10%30.08%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 36.66%; Shakhtar Donetsk (Visit): 35.26%; Draw: 28.08%. For Lech Poznań (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.728. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.730, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.072%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.81%EV +0.072%E +0.026%K +0.042%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.72%EV -11.15%E -4.42%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.47%EV -2.83%E -0.817%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 17:35
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%EV -1.03%E -0.381%K -0.604%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.72%EV -5.15%E -1.92%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.69%EV -5.92%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.46%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.13%EV -3.04%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.41%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-12 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.46%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.13%EV -3.04%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.41%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-12 17:20
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -2.86%E -1.08%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.56%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-12 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.48%EV -3.59%E -1.37%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.89%EV -3.04%E -1.10%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.64%EV -5.92%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 17:30
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -3.96%E -1.51%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -3.96%E -1.51%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -7.62%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -8.73%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 17:40
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -4.80%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 17:25
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.51%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -4.80%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -5.92%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 17:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -10.09%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 17:25
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -4.69%E -1.81%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -10.09%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 37.38%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.95%EV -2.33%E -0.842%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66%EV -1.70%E -0.487%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.27%EV -5.79%E -2.25%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.31%EV -6.92%E -2.62%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -7.88%E -2.40%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 17:40
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.26%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.19%EV -4.80%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.11%E -0.901%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 17:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.96%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -4.80%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.92%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 17:25
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.20%EV -7.27%E -2.76%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.73%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.31%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.20%EV -7.27%E -2.76%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.73%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 17:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -10.09%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-12 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -6.53%E -2.56%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -10.09%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -10.13%E -3.17%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.99%EV -7.26%E -2.87%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -4.80%E -1.78%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 17:25
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.14%EV -7.63%E -3.03%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -5.51%E -2.05%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.92%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 17:39
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -7.63%E -3.03%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -7.62%E -2.91%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -5.92%E -1.77%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-12 17:40
Bovada🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.73%EV -7.99%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.33%EV -7.97%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -7.32%E -2.22%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 17:38
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -6.56%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-12 17:20
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -3.11%E -0.901%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-12 17:40
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.51%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-12 17:40
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -10.13%E -3.17%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 17:35
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -10.13%E -3.17%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 17:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -10.13%E -3.17%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -10.13%E -3.17%K -4.60%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 17:35
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -10.09%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -8.73%E -2.68%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 17:35
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -8.36%E -3.34%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -11.85%E -4.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -12.94%E -4.17%K -6.16%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-12 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-12 17:40